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Will Bongbong Marcos share the same fate with Gloria Macapagal Arroyo?
She was the most unpopular Philippine leader in history since post-EDSA with her approval and trust ratings plunging minus 50 percent based on opinion polls.
She faced five impeachment motions at the House of Representatives and three serious destabilization attempts by a segment of the Armed Forces.
But she survived these numerous political and security threats, completing her term in 2010.
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Arroyo’s meteoric rise to power began in 1995 when she topped the senatorial elections and later won as vice president in 1998.Her popularity further rose in 2000 when President Joseph Estrada got mired in a corruption scandal due to kickbacks in the tobacco tax, insider trading, and illegal gambling operations.
Then her descent began when she was also involved in corruption scandal, peaking in 2005 when a recording surfaced insinuating she stole the 2004 elections from movie action hero Fernando Poe Jr.
Her popularity was totally eroded when doubts were raised that she had benefitted from the overpriced $329 million NBN-ZTE telecommunications deal with China.
But she held her ground and survived all the political crises, handing over the reins of power peacefully and smoothly to Benigno Aquino III in 2010.
Arroyo survived the crises because the country’s important institutions stood solidly behind her . Roman Catholic bishops did not call for her removal, the business community trusted her, and the military brass stayed loyal to her, quelling destabilization attempts by rogue troops.
Bongbong Marcos Jr is in the same boat.
He was elected president in May 2022 with the largest number of votes in history, obtaining almost 60 percent of votes cast in multi-party elections since 1992. Only his father surpassed his record with more than 80 percent of votes cast in the 1981 elections.
But with alliance with the Duterte’s started to crumble, everything went downhill.
He is now accused of corruption big time.
A discredited former congressman claimed he had ordered the insertion of 100 billion pesos in the 2025 budget and got 56 billion from more than 600 infrastructure projects added to the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) allocations.
Anti-Marcos groups took to the streets and demanded his resignation. His own sister turned against him, revealing in public his drug use.
His political enemies have continued trying to persuade the Armed Forces leadership to abandon him and install his vice president, Sara Duterte, an erstwhile political ally and now a bitter critic. Like Arroyo, Bongbong appeared to have survived the serious threats to his political office.
The military brass stayed loyal to him, the Roman Catholic bishops refused to call for his ouster, and the business community, though shaken by the corruption scandal, remained to trust him. His approval and trust ratings remained in the positive although it had plunged below 50 percent.
Bongbong hangs by the thread, living on a day-to-day existence as he continues to face a political crisis. For now, he is safe due to the Christmas holidays.
But it will be a different story next year especially when evidence started to show he knew about the corruption scheme and was complicit with his first cousin, former House Speaker Martin Romualdez, and his son, Ilocos Norte Congressman Sandro Marcos.
Political fortunes can change overnight. There are real dangers political allies may turn against him as he seriously pursued corruption cases.
For instance, there were 67 congressmen who may be tied to anomalous construction projects. There were some officials in the executive branch who dipped their dirty fingers into overpriced, substandard, and non-existent government projects.
Threatened with a longer jail term and seizure of ill-gotten assets. They could turn against Marcos and defect to his political foes.
Some of these allies turned enemies could provide damning evidence on anomalous projects that could not be connected to infrastructure projects that could turn Bongbong’s political fortunes upside down.
Real danger is still lurking around, and Bongbong has to watch his back.
For now, Bongbong just wanted to complete his term, just like Arroyo in 2010. How long will he hold on? Will he share the same fate with Arroyo or suffer what happened to his father in 1986?
The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of this publication.
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