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Three foreign nations possess the willingness and capability to conduct lethal targeting against perceived dissidents on Australian soil, ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess revealed Tuesday in a stark warning about evolving security threats facing the country.
Burgess disclosed the assassination threat during his annual threat assessment at the Lowy Institute, marking the first time Australia’s top spy chief publicly acknowledged multiple state actors prepared to kill targets within the nation’s borders. The warning comes months after ASIO determined Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps directed at least two anti-Semitic arson attacks in Australia.
“Please note I said attempt to assassinate,” Burgess told the audience. “ASIO and our law enforcement partners are acutely alive to this threat and are working around the clock using all our powers to protect Australians from this threat.”
The director-general declined to name the three nations but said the countries know who they are. He emphasized Australia’s geographic distance no longer insulates it from sophisticated foreign threats, signaling a dramatic shift in the nation’s security environment.
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Putting Foreign Powers on Notice
Burgess said publicizing the assassination threat serves dual purposes: alerting Australians to dangers they might not believe possible and warning foreign intelligence services that ASIO knows their intentions.
“I think it’s incredibly important that Australians understand that we now live in a world where that is possible, something that people might not think is possible,” Burgess said during a question-and-answer session with Lowy Institute Executive Director Michael Fullilove. “Australia is a long way from everywhere, but it’s not from these threats.”
The ASIO chief added: “The countries that I didn’t mention by name know who I’m talking about. We know who they are. By mentioning it publicly, I’m also putting them on notice that we know that some of you are prepared to do this and we will do our damnedest to stop it before it happens.”
Burgess noted foreign regimes would likely try to hide their involvement by hiring criminal cutouts, similar to how Iran directed its arson attacks through proxies.
Iran’s Arson Campaign Confirmed
The director-general provided new details about Iran’s operations targeting Australia’s Jewish community, confirming ASIO determined through bottom-up investigation that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps orchestrated multiple attacks.
“In regards to our work on assessing Iran directed at least two, probably more of the arson attacks here in Australia, but not all of them,” Burgess said. “I’m proud to work in an organisation where our clever people worked from the bottom up to figure out that it was Iran behind this.”
He emphasized ASIO conducted the investigation primarily using its own capabilities, calling it a “brilliant job” by his team. The work demonstrated ASIO could accomplish what Iranian intelligence services likely thought impossible.
“How we did that, you’d understand why I’m not going to share that publicly,” Burgess said. “Our secret source is our sources and methods that enables us to do something that the Iranians would have thought was near impossible. It wasn’t. We’re better than that.”
Burgess welcomed and congratulated Israel’s Mossad intelligence service for last week revealing the identity of the IRGC commander responsible for directing the Australian attacks.
The ASIO chief noted anti-Semitism existed in Australia before Iran directed its attacks and Iran is not responsible for every incident, but the regime exploited existing tensions to inflame violence.
Social Cohesion Under Assault
Burgess framed threats to Australia’s social fabric as a national security issue requiring whole-of-society response beyond law enforcement capabilities.
“ASIO and law enforcement are part of the solution, but not the full solution,” Burgess said. “You cannot spy your way to greater cohesion or arrest your way to fewer grievances. It requires a whole of community, whole of society response. And I mean that literally. Every one of us has a role to play protecting our social cohesion.”
The director-general warned that in an age of unprecedented communication avenues, Australians are losing the ability to converse with civility, debate with respect and disagree with restraint.
“To have an exchange of ideas rather than an exchange of diatribes or slogans or rhetorical blows,” Burgess said. “To be right without being righteous. To compromise.”
He expressed concern about “real world algorithms” where grievance, intolerance, polarization and rhetoric feed on themselves, inflaming tensions and increasing potential for violence.
Social Media’s Accelerating Role
While acknowledging social media algorithms accelerate extremism and radicalization, Burgess emphasized algorithms don’t operate in isolation.
“People choose to create the content. People choose to engage with the content and people choose to act on the content,” he said.
The ASIO chief said aggrieved actors, opportunists and cunning foreign services are exploiting and amplifying existing discord rather than creating divisions from scratch.
“My concern is a more vulnerable, fractured and intolerant society means a less predictable and increasingly volatile security environment,” Burgess said.
Australia’s Resilience Amid Threats
Despite outlining significant challenges, Burgess said Australia remains better positioned than many Western democracies to meet emerging threats.
“Our parliaments are sovereign, our communities are resilient, our economy is growing,” he said. “These attributes along with others such as compulsory voting and a social safety net are critical, stabilisers and insulators.”
The director-general emphasized threats are significant but not insurmountable, noting even the most cunning foreign intelligence service is not invincible.
“A national terrorism threat level of probable does not mean inevitable,” Burgess said. “We should not be defeatist or insecure about our security. We can and should have confidence in our ability to respond.”
He noted every plot described in his threat assessment was stopped, disrupted or pieced together by ASIO and partner agencies.
“We do not need to be security alarmed, but we do need to be security aware, security sensible and consider the consequences of our own words and actions,” Burgess said.
US Intelligence Relationship Remains Strong
Asked about Australia’s relationship with U.S. intelligence agencies amid the Trump administration’s appointments, Burgess declined to comment on American domestic affairs but affirmed intelligence cooperation remains robust.
“I can tell you our relationship with our United States colleagues is as strong as it’s ever been across the national intelligence community,” Burgess said. “And with my agency, we have strong relationships.”
He specifically mentioned FBI Director Kash Patel, saying they maintain a strong working relationship focused on protecting Australian and American lives.
“That strong work continues,” Burgess said. “Countries will go through whatever they’re going through, but at its core, we’ll judge those relationships on the things that matter. And when it comes to protecting Australians, the Americans are great mates, and they help us every day, and we do our fair share of helping them as well.”
The ASIO chief said he has seen no change in cooperation since President Donald Trump was re-elected.
Five Eyes Intelligence Partnership
Burgess described the Five Eyes intelligence partnership between Australia, the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and New Zealand as special and irreplicable, growing from trust relationships forged during World War II.
“We trust each other and we share fully,” Burgess said. “And as a country, we punch well above our weight in our contribution back to the partnership, so they benefit from this closeness.”
He cautioned against viewing Five Eyes as a leadership board ranking top partnerships, noting some of Australia’s best intelligence partners aren’t members of the alliance.
“The Five Eyes is special, can’t be replicated, but that doesn’t mean to say there are not other strong relationships that we and my colleagues in the National Intelligence Community press into,” Burgess said.
Spy Chief Relationships
Burgess offered rare glimpses into relationships between intelligence chiefs, including an anecdote about an offshore operation where ASIO substituted one of its officers for a foreign intelligence service’s target. The ASIO officer told the foreign agents to pass regards to their service chief.
“In the end, these relationships are incredibly important,” Burgess said. “They allow us to have difficult conversations.”
He described meetings with foreign counterparts as business-focused encounters where officials have hard conversations respectfully and make disagreements clear when necessary.
“I can give you, without giving the examples, two matters that I have been involved in directly with a foreign counterpart on various serious matters, and both matters were resolved to Australia’s interest,” Burgess said. “That’s not possible without having relationships and conversations, even with services that cause my service the greatest amount of pain.”
National Security Is Everyone’s Business
Burgess closed his threat assessment by emphasizing national security extends beyond government agencies and intelligence services.
“Your business might not be in national security, but that doesn’t mean national security is not your business,” he said.
The director-general, who described himself as an introvert by nature, said communicating security intelligence and assessments to all Australians represents a core ASIO function, not just briefing government officials and security clearance holders.
“Explaining the threats to the people we protect, and I think it’s incredibly important that Australians understand that we now live in a world where that is possible,” Burgess said.
His annual threat assessment serves as ASIO’s primary vehicle for informing Australians about evolving security challenges facing the nation, balancing the need for public awareness against operational security requirements that prevent disclosure of sources and methods.
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