Rules-based order eroding as security threats mount economic costs, Luxon warns from ASEAN summit
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New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon issued stark warnings Tuesday that the international rules-based system is deteriorating as power dynamics replace established norms, declaring that regional security threats directly undermine economic prosperity in an interconnected global landscape.
Speaking from the ASEAN summit in Malaysia, Luxon endorsed Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s position that nations cannot remain passive spectators amid regional security challenges, articulating a broader concern about fundamental shifts in the international order that has governed global affairs for seven decades.
“The context is that we’re seeing a change to the rules-based system,” Luxon told Sky News Afternoon Agenda. “The thing that has served the world well for the last 70 to 80 years is breaking down.”
The New Zealand leader outlined three critical transitions reshaping international relations: a shift from rules to power, from economics to security, and from efficiency to resilience. These transformations, according to Luxon, require nations to move beyond rhetorical commitments to democratic values and undertake concrete actions supporting regional stability.
“We don’t just espouse our values and mouth off on them,” Luxon said. “We have to follow it through with real action.”
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Luxon’s remarks coincided with Albanese’s planned address to ASEAN leaders emphasizing collective responsibility for maintaining regional peace. The trans-Tasman alignment on security messaging reflects coordinated approaches between Wellington and Canberra regarding Indo-Pacific stability concerns.
The Prime Minister drew explicit connections between security conditions and economic outcomes, arguing that conflict zones create cascading effects on cost of living, trade flows, and overall prosperity. “Where we have risks of insecurity or conflict or war, that creates a huge problem in terms of our economy’s cost of living and prosperity, ultimately,” Luxon stated.
New Zealand’s foreign policy reorientation toward the Indo-Pacific region stems partially from recognition that national prosperity depends on stable security environments, according to Luxon’s framing. “Our prosperity and our security sits in that place,” he said, referring to the broader Asia-Pacific theater.
The rules-based international system, established following World War II and reinforced through institutions including the United Nations, World Trade Organization, and various regional security frameworks, has faced mounting challenges from territorial disputes, trade conflicts, and competing visions of global governance.
Luxon’s characterization of power replacing rules as an organizing principle suggests concerns about unilateral actions by major powers potentially superseding multilateral agreements and international law. The shift from economics to security indicates that traditional trade relationships increasingly incorporate strategic considerations and supply chain resilience factors.
“Where you want prosperity, but you’ve got war that gets in the way, and when you’ve got war, you can’t get prosperity,” Luxon said. “So the two are inextricably linked in 2025.”
The temporal specificity of Luxon’s statement — referencing 2025 explicitly — suggests current conditions differ materially from previous periods when economic and security considerations operated in more separate spheres. Modern conflicts’ impacts on energy markets, food supplies, and trade routes demonstrate the interconnection Luxon described.
Australian Prime Minister Albanese, who leads a Labor government elected in 2022, has maintained consistent messaging regarding regional engagement and multilateral cooperation. As Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong and Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment Don Farrell have emphasized similar themes in recent diplomatic initiatives.
The ASEAN summit context provided both Luxon and Albanese platforms to articulate security concerns before an audience of Southeast Asian leaders navigating complex relationships with major powers including China, the United States, Japan, and India. ASEAN’s centrality in regional architecture makes member states’ perspectives crucial for maintaining stability frameworks.
Luxon’s emphasis on action over rhetoric suggests New Zealand intends policy adjustments beyond diplomatic statements. Wellington has increased defense spending, expanded military cooperation with regional partners, and enhanced intelligence-sharing arrangements in recent years, though specific details remain classified.
“You’re seeing very clearly around the world and also even in our region that where we have risks of insecurity or conflict or war, that creates a huge problem,” Luxon noted, avoiding explicit identification of specific flashpoints while acknowledging multiple regional concerns.
The South China Sea territorial disputes, Taiwan Strait tensions, Korean Peninsula dynamics, and various maritime boundary disagreements represent potential conflict zones within the broader Indo-Pacific region. New Zealand’s position as a smaller nation within this strategic landscape requires careful diplomatic calibration.
New Zealand maintains defense partnerships through the Five Eyes intelligence alliance including Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Wellington also participates in various bilateral and multilateral security dialogues across the Asia-Pacific region.
The efficiency-to-resilience shift Luxon identified reflects growing emphasis on supply chain security, critical infrastructure protection, and reduced dependency on single-source suppliers for essential goods. The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent supply chain disruptions accelerated this transition across developed economies.
Luxon’s statement that the rules-based system “has served the world well for the last 70 to 80 years” references the post-1945 international architecture that facilitated unprecedented global economic growth, reduced major power conflicts, and established norms for international behavior.
The erosion Luxon described presents challenges for smaller nations like New Zealand that rely on international law and multilateral frameworks to protect sovereignty and maintain market access. Power-based international relations potentially disadvantage nations lacking military or economic weight relative to major powers.
Regional security discussions at the ASEAN summit included maritime cooperation, counterterrorism coordination, cyber security challenges, and disaster response mechanisms. New Zealand’s participation reflected its comprehensive strategic partnership status and commitment to regional engagement.
Luxon’s endorsement of Albanese’s approach — “I think Anthony’s right to raise that issue in that way” — demonstrated trans-Tasman coordination on regional messaging despite the two leaders representing different political traditions domestically.
New Zealand’s defense budget, while modest compared to larger nations, has seen increases targeting maritime surveillance capabilities, cyber defense infrastructure, and interoperability improvements with partner militaries. These investments align with Luxon’s emphasis on action supporting stated values.
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