Coalition Fractures Deepen Over Net Zero as Nationals Abandon 2050 Target
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Australia’s opposition coalition is confronting its deepest internal fracture in years as the National Party formally abandons the net zero by 2050 emissions target, exposing fundamental disagreements on climate policy that threaten the Liberal-National partnership and the leadership of Opposition Leader Sussan Ley.
The Nationals’ decision to walk away from the internationally agreed climate commitment has triggered an intense debate within the Liberal Party over whether to follow suit, with moderate and conservative factions sharply divided on the electoral and policy implications of abandoning the target adopted under the Morrison government.
Liberal Senator Maria Kovacic, Shadow Assistant Minister to the Leader of the Opposition representing New South Wales, acknowledged in a television interview Tuesday that the leadership faces significant challenges navigating the split while warning that abandoning net zero could prove electorally disastrous in metropolitan seats the party lost in the 2025 election.
“I think it’s a concern if Australians perceive that to be as not listening, as not having heard the message that they sent us. And I am concerned that that will be the perception, particularly in metropolitan seats,” Kovacic told ABC’s Afternoon Briefing program.
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The shadow minister emphasized the difficulty of policy development when the party room no longer includes members from lost electorates who could represent those voters’ perspectives.
“The challenge that we have when we’re having these policy discussions is that the people in the room are the people in the room, but the people that lost their seats and the seats that we don’t represent are not. So we have to ensure that we’re thinking about those communities as well,” Kovacic said.
Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce, the former Deputy Prime Minister, claimed credit for the party’s shift on climate policy during a Sky News appearance, describing his role in colorful terms.
“I’ve played my part. I mean, I could be sort of faux humble and say, oh, no, no, definitely I played my part, had a big part, but it was also others, Matt Canavan,” Joyce said. “I hate having to hand the laurel to somebody else, but I think Matt Canavan is the match that started the flame, and I threw a bit of petrol on the fire.”
The Nationals’ position maintains support for emissions reduction but aligns targets with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development average rather than the more ambitious 2050 net zero goal. Party leaders argue this approach prioritizes energy affordability and economic competitiveness over climate commitments they view as unrealistic.
Liberal moderate Tim Wilson, the Member for Goldstein in Victoria and Shadow Minister for Small Business, sought to differentiate the Liberal Party from its coalition partner, emphasizing that the senior partner would make its own decision through a deliberative process.
“Well, the National Party will make their own decisions. We’re the Liberal Party. We’re not nationals light. We will make our own decision,” Wilson told ABC, invoking Opposition Leader Sussan Ley’s leadership in resisting pressure earlier this year when the Nationals briefly walked away from the coalition.
“Sussan Ley demonstrated very clearly what leadership looks like in May of this year. The National Party walked away from the coalition briefly and she stood her ground. And, of course, because she understood that once you lose moral authority, it’s very hard to get back. So she’s shown the way before. I’m sure she’ll show the way again,” Wilson said.
The Liberal Party has established a working group led by Shadow Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction Dan Tehan, the Member for Wannon in Victoria, to develop the party’s climate and energy policy. Tehan is expected to present recommendations to the party room before the end of the parliamentary year, though the timeline and outcome remain uncertain.
Liberal Senator Andrew Bragg of New South Wales, Shadow Minister for Housing and Homelessness, earlier argued the party must remain within the Paris Agreement framework, warning that abandoning international climate commitments would damage Australia’s diplomatic standing and economic interests.
However, Shadow Cabinet Secretary Andrew Wallace, the Member for Fisher in Queensland, declined to commit to any specific position when questioned about staying within the Paris framework, saying only that the Liberal Party would complete its “deliberative process” and develop policy through consultation rather than predetermined outcomes.
“The Liberal Party will make a call on this. We’ll go through a deliberative, we are going through a deliberative process. And I’m not going to foreshadow with you today what that outcome will be. There’s a fair way to go yet,” Wallace told Sky News.
Wallace emphasized the party’s “broad church” approach, contrasting it with what he characterized as Labor’s more rigid policy discipline, while insisting Opposition Leader Sussan Ley retains strong party room support despite media speculation about leadership tensions.
“Sussan’s doing a terrific job. You know, I look at Susan today, in the last couple of days, when, you know, the media obviously are speaking about her. You know, she is doing a terrific job. She’s not showing... If she’s under pressure, she’s not showing any signs of it,” Wallace said, adding that “no-one is doing any numbers” and Ley has “the support of the party room.”
The coalition’s internal tensions come as the Albanese government advances its renewable energy agenda, with Energy and Climate Minister Chris Bowen dismissing the opposition’s debate as disconnected from practical energy policy challenges facing Australian households and businesses.
Bowen, the Member for McMahon in New South Wales, told a press conference the government remains focused on reducing energy costs and expanding renewable energy capacity, noting that renewable sources provided 50% of Australia’s energy mix last month, reaching as high as 79% during peak solar generation periods.
“This is the opportunity for our country. That’s what I’m focused on,” Bowen said when asked about the coalition’s net zero debate, characterizing opposition figures as engaged in “science denialism.”
Climate Minister Bowen’s comments reflected frustration within government ranks that the opposition appears more focused on internal policy disputes than constructive engagement on energy challenges including rising power bills, grid stability, and the transition to renewable sources.
The coalition’s fracture over climate policy echoes divisions that plagued the Liberal-National parties during their last term in government from 2013 to 2022, when internal disagreements over climate and energy policy contributed to leadership instability and ultimately electoral defeat.
Political observers note that the current split carries particular risks for the Liberal Party as it attempts to rebuild support in urban and suburban electorates lost to Labor and independent candidates who campaigned on stronger climate action. Those seats include wealthy inner-city constituencies and middle-class suburban areas where polling consistently shows strong support for climate action.
Kovacic’s frank acknowledgment of electoral concerns reflects growing anxiety among moderate Liberals that abandoning net zero could cement the party’s losses in precisely the seats it needs to regain to have any chance of forming government after the next election.
“Does it worry you what the electoral consequences could be if the Liberal Party walks away from net zero by 2050?” the ABC interviewer asked Kovacic.
“I think it’s a concern if Australians perceive that to be as not listening, as not having heard the message that they sent us. And I am concerned that that will be the perception, particularly in metropolitan seats,” she replied.
The question now facing the coalition is whether the Liberal Party will follow the Nationals in abandoning net zero, attempt to maintain the target independently while preserving the coalition partnership, or risk a more fundamental rupture in the alliance that has dominated conservative politics in Australia for decades.
Liberal Party sources speaking on background suggest the outcome likely depends on whether Ley can navigate between competing factions while maintaining sufficient authority to impose a final decision — a challenge made more difficult by persistent questions about her leadership tenure and the party’s dismal election result in May 2025.
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