Australia Expected to Miss 2035 Climate Goal by 14 Percentage Points, Government Admits
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Australia will badly miss its 2035 climate commitment and fall just short of its legislated 2030 emissions reduction target, according to departmental projections released Thursday that expose a significant gap between government promises and projected outcomes.
Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen told Parliament that current policies will achieve just 48% emissions reduction by 2035, falling dramatically short of the government’s 62% commitment. The admission came in Bowen’s annual climate statement on the final sitting day before the summer recess.
“The emissions projections show that additional work will be needed to get to the 2035 target. The 2035 target is ambitious and achievable, but it is not yet being achieved,” Bowen stated, acknowledging the 14 percentage point gap between commitment and projected reality.
The minister attempted to normalize the shortfall by characterizing it as typical for long-term targets. “With currently implemented government policies, Australia is on track to achieve our 2030 target in budget terms and is very close to achieving the 2030 point in time target as well,” he said.
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However, the projections reveal Australia will also narrowly miss its legislated 2030 goal, which the Albanese government enshrined in law following the May 2025 election. The department’s analysis suggests emissions reductions will fall slightly below the statutory requirement, though Bowen emphasized budget-based accounting shows better performance.
The minister defended the projections by noting they do not account for some recent policy commitments, suggesting actual outcomes could improve beyond current trajectories. “The projections do not account for some recent commitments, but he does acknowledge there is more work to do,” according to the ABC Afternoon Briefing summary of his statement.
The climate target shortfall came on the same day the government celebrated passage of landmark environmental reforms through Parliament, creating an awkward juxtaposition between legislative achievement and emissions performance. Environmental groups that negotiated the environmental law changes expressed concern about the climate projections.
Anne Aly, Minister for Small Business and Multicultural Affairs, told ABC’s Afternoon Briefing the environmental law reforms would contribute to emissions reductions by streamlining renewable energy project approvals. However, she did not directly address the 14 percentage point gap in 2035 projections.
“What we’ve achieved today is quite momentous,” Aly said when asked about business concerns regarding the environmental laws. She cited Professor Graeme Samuel’s relief that recommendations from his five-year-old review were finally being implemented.
The 2035 target represents Australia’s contribution to global efforts limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The government committed to the 62% reduction target earlier in 2025, positioning Australia as aligned with other developed nations pursuing aggressive decarbonization.
The 14 percentage point shortfall translates to tens of millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent that Australia will emit beyond its commitment level unless additional policies are implemented. Climate scientists have warned that such gaps undermine global collective action on climate change.
Opposition energy spokesman Dan Tehan, who represents the Victorian seat of Wannon, seized on the admission to attack Labor’s climate credibility. Liberal and National MPs have questioned whether the government’s renewable energy transition strategy can deliver promised emissions reductions without economic disruption.
The projections suggest current renewable energy deployment rates, while substantial, remain insufficient to displace fossil fuel generation fast enough to meet the 2035 target. Coal plant retirements have proceeded faster than replacement capacity comes online, creating the potential for energy security concerns alongside emissions challenges.
Gas industry representatives noted the projections validate their argument that natural gas will remain essential during the energy transition. However, environmental groups counter that accelerated renewable deployment combined with energy efficiency measures could close the gap without expanded fossil fuel infrastructure.
The department’s analysis incorporates existing policies including the capacity investment scheme, renewable energy zone development, and various state-level initiatives. However, it does not account for potential future measures such as expanded carbon pricing, vehicle emissions standards, or industrial decarbonization programs.
Bowen has indicated the government will develop additional policies to close the gap, though he declined to specify which measures are under consideration. Treasury analysis suggests meeting the 2035 target will require either accelerated renewable deployment, significant demand-side measures, or both.
The 2030 target near-miss poses immediate political challenges for the government, which legislated the goal to demonstrate climate leadership following years of coalition resistance to emissions reduction. Missing a legally enshrined target, even by a small margin, provides opposition ammunition for credibility attacks.
International climate negotiations assume developed nations including Australia will meet stated commitments, with developing countries conditioning their own actions on wealthy nations delivering promised reductions. Australia’s projected shortfall could complicate diplomatic efforts to maintain global climate cooperation.
The projections also raise questions about Australia’s 2050 net zero commitment, which requires far deeper emissions cuts than the 2035 target. If current policies fall 14 percentage points short of the 2035 goal, the trajectory toward 2050 appears even more challenging without transformative policy interventions.
Youth climate activists expressed frustration with the government’s admission, characterizing it as another example of inadequate action from political leaders. Generation Z and younger Millennials, who will experience the worst climate change impacts, have consistently prioritized aggressive emissions reduction in polling.
Business groups offered mixed reactions to the projections. Some expressed relief that the government acknowledged the gap rather than maintaining unrealistic claims, while others questioned whether the targets were appropriately calibrated to economic realities in the first place.
The timing of Bowen’s statement, buried in the final hours of the parliamentary year amid Joyce’s defection and environmental law debates, suggested potential political sensitivity about the admission. Climate advocates criticized the government for not highlighting the shortfall more prominently or outlining immediate corrective measures.
As Parliament rose for the summer recess, climate policy remained a flashpoint of partisan division despite the environmental law reforms achieving passage. Labor’s challenge will be developing politically palatable measures that close the 14 percentage point gap without alienating voters concerned about energy costs and economic competitiveness.
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