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Trump's tariff announcements affecting Canada, Mexico, and China
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Trump's tariff announcements affecting Canada, Mexico, and China

It is February 28th today, and I am here with your morning news briefing. Just to mention it, ad firms or billionaires do not fund my work. You, the people fund it. Thanks for your help; it has let me work full-time. Just today, we discovered that this independent movement ranks among the top two in the whole nation.

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TRADE TENSIONS ESCALATE

  • Trump confirms 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico effective March 4

  • Additional 10% tariff to be imposed on Chinese imports

  • Rationale: Continued concerns over drug trafficking and immigration

  • Impact: Over $1 trillion of US imports affected

  • Key vulnerability: Canada and Mexico send 80% of exports to US

  • Analysis: Expect upward pressure on US inflation figures

US ECONOMIC INDICATORS MIXED

  • Q4 GDP: Maintained at 2.3% annualized growth

  • Consumer strength: Personal consumption robust at 4.2% annualized

  • Investment weakness: Non-residential investment revised down to -3.2%

  • Inflation signal: PCE deflator excluding food/energy revised up to 2.7%

  • Manufacturing pulse: January durable goods orders exceeded expectations at +3.1%

  • Context: Boeing production rebound driving manufacturing figures following strike disruption

NZ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE STRENGTHENS

  • February ANZ Business Outlook: Confidence index rose to 58.4 from 54.4

  • Sectoral divergence: Services softening while manufacturing remains robust

  • Forward indicators: Both hiring and investment intentions increased

  • Inflation watch: Pricing intentions edged higher

  • Rate cut anticipation: Businesses optimistic about growth impact of coming monetary easing

  • Tariff impact assessment: No evidence of US trade announcements affecting local decision-making

AUSTRALIAN CAPEX UNEXPECTEDLY CONTRACTS

  • Q4 capital expenditure: Volume declined 0.2%

  • Sectoral breakdown: Mining sector down 0.6%

  • Investment type: Equipment, plant & machinery investment fell 1.0%

  • GDP implication: Likely drag on growth figures releasing next week

  • Context: Follows broader pattern of investment hesitancy

EQUITY MARKETS SHOW DIVERGENCE

  • US performance split: Dow advances while tech stocks retreat

  • Earnings spotlight: Nvidia results met revenue targets but raised margin concerns

  • Regional variation: Continental European markets trended lower

  • Fixed income: Treasury yields climbed following tariff announcements

  • Rate expectations: Inflation concerns pushing yields higher

CURRENCY MARKETS FAVOR USD

  • Dollar strength: Broad-based gains following tariff announcement

  • Magnitude: USD approximately 0.6% higher against euro and yen

  • Regional currencies: NZD and AUD experienced slightly larger declines

  • Current levels: Kiwi trading around 0.565 USD

  • Technical position: Marginally lower against most major currencies

ECONOMIC CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS

  • Today: ANZ consumer confidence expected to show modest improvement

  • Australia: Private sector credit data releasing this afternoon

  • Forecast: Monthly growth rate likely edging lower to 0.5% in January

  • Weekend focus: Canadian Q4 GDP data early Saturday (NZ time)

  • Critical indicator: US PCE deflator for January (Saturday release)

  • Market sensitivity: Following higher-than-expected CPI figures earlier this month

  • Consensus forecast: Core PCE at +0.3% month-on-month

MARKET IMPLICATIONS

  • Trade policy: Heightened uncertainty for export-oriented economies

  • Inflation trajectory: Multiple indicators suggesting persistent price pressures

  • Rate path: Central banks balancing growth concerns with inflation vigilance

  • Investment strategy: Defensive positioning gaining favor amid uncertainty

  • Currency outlook: USD strength likely to persist near-term


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