Trump Administration Pauses Weapons Shipments to Ukraine Amid Stockpile Concerns
Defense analyst warns move could embolden Putin as peace talks stall
The Trump administration has paused weapons shipments to Ukraine over concerns about dwindling U.S. military stockpiles, a decision that defense experts warn could strengthen Russia's position in the ongoing conflict.
The weapons pause recommendation came from Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, who cited fears that American stockpiles were running dangerously low, according to Malcolm Davis, Senior Analyst of Defence Strategy, speaking on Sky News AM Agenda Friday.
"If the US shipments of weapons do not resume, then Ukraine is left with what it can get from Europe," Davis said during the television interview. "That's not sufficient to essentially hold back the Russians indefinitely."
The development comes as President Donald Trump held another phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with little progress reported on efforts to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump is expected to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky later Friday.
Davis characterized Putin as having no interest in peace negotiations, despite Trump's diplomatic efforts.
"Putin has no desire to have a peace agreement. He wants war," Davis said. "And he wants war because he thinks he can win militarily, particularly when the US president or the US Trump administration decides to pause military assistance to Ukraine."
The weapons suspension affects critical defense systems including Patriot missiles, which Ukraine has relied on to defend against Russian air attacks on civilian infrastructure and military targets.
Without continued U.S. military support, Davis warned that Ukraine's defensive capabilities would gradually deteriorate, potentially allowing Russian forces to accelerate their territorial gains.
"What you would see is eventually the military capabilities of Ukraine begin to dissipate, the Russians make faster advances, and eventually the Russians could win in Ukraine," he said.
The analyst suggested such an outcome could have broader consequences for European security, potentially emboldening Putin to target NATO countries later this decade.
"That would then embolden Putin to turn his sights on NATO later this decade," Davis said. "If the Trump administration does in fact walk away from Ukraine entirely and doesn't support Ukraine militarily, then we are seeing unfortunately the seeds sown for a wider war in Europe later this decade."
Trump's Fiscal Policy Raises Defense Spending Concerns
The weapons stockpile concerns emerge as Trump celebrated passage of what he called the "Big Beautiful Bill," which the president described as featuring the largest tax cut and spending cut in American history, though those claims have been disputed.
Davis expressed concerns that the legislation could add trillions to the U.S. national debt, potentially compromising America's ability to fund defense and national security priorities.
"It's going to add trillions more to the US national debt, which is going to basically create huge problems down the track in terms of actually being able to afford other aspects of vital American interests, particularly in terms of defense and national security," Davis said.
The analyst warned that excessive debt accumulation could lead to a fiscal crisis that would undermine America's ability to counter threats from China and Russia.
"If you build up debt to that level, eventually the system breaks and then you have a major problem in the sense that America becomes insolvent," he said. "So how then the US actually prepares for the threats ahead in terms of from China and Russia and building up their defense capabilities, I don't know."
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AUKUS Submarine Deal Faces Potential Delays
The same stockpile concerns affecting Ukraine could impact the AUKUS submarine partnership between the United States, United Kingdom and Australia. Colby, who recommended the Ukraine weapons pause, is also conducting a review of the AUKUS agreement.
Davis said the review could recommend delays in delivering Virginia-class submarines to Australia, creating a significant capability gap for the Australian Navy.
"The AUKUS review could basically recommend a delay in the delivery of the Virginia class submarines that could significantly impact Australia," Davis said. "If it's a long delay, if it's a delay of some years, then we have a real problem on our hands."
Australia's current Collins-class submarines are aging and require life extension upgrades that may be less comprehensive than originally planned. Any delay in the Virginia-class delivery could leave Australia with a critical undersea warfare capability gap.
"The Collins class submarines that we have at the moment are very old," Davis said. "They are supposedly meant to get a life type upgrade, but that life type upgrade that is now being considered is much less than what was anticipated originally."
The potential delays could have cascading effects on the program's ultimate goal of delivering British-built SSN AUKUS submarines to Australia.
"If the optimal pathway to acquire the submarines is thrown off course, then that would also have a knock-on impact on the eventual acquisition of the British-built SSN AUKUS," Davis said. "So the whole thing could be delayed, which would then generate more problems for us."
Despite the concerns, Davis said he doesn't expect the United States to completely withdraw from AUKUS because the agreement serves American strategic interests.
"I don't see the Americans withdrawing from AUKUS completely because it's in their interest to maintain that agreement," he said.
Europe Prepares for Potential Conflict
As the U.S. potentially reduces its support for Ukraine, European nations are simultaneously preparing for the possibility of direct conflict with Russia along NATO's eastern borders.
Davis noted that European countries are focused on their own defense preparations, limiting their ability to fully compensate for reduced American weapons shipments to Ukraine.
"Europe is already focused very much on preparing for the possibility of war with Russia sometime later this decade along NATO's eastern frontier," he said. "So they've got their own concerns."
Ukraine has been developing its own weapons production capabilities, but Davis said domestic production alone cannot match the scale of support previously provided by the United States.
"What Ukraine can develop its own by itself from its own industrial base, that's not sufficient to essentially hold back the Russians indefinitely," he said.
Diplomatic Efforts Continue
Despite the weapons pause and stockpile concerns, Trump continues diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The president's latest phone call with Putin reportedly yielded little concrete progress.
Davis expressed skepticism about Trump's ability to convince Putin to agree to peace terms, suggesting the Russian leader believes military victory is achievable.
"I think at some point, Trump surely must open his eyes and realize this is the case," Davis said. "And the question is, what does he do then? Does he then shrug his shoulders and walk away, as has been suggested in the past, that he might do? Or does he try to put more pressure on Putin?"
The analyst predicted Trump would be more likely to disengage from the conflict rather than increase pressure on Russia.
"I'm tipping there will probably be the former rather than the latter," he said.
The timing of potential conversations between Trump and Zelensky will be closely watched for indications of how the administration plans to balance its diplomatic initiatives with military support decisions.
The weapons pause represents a significant shift in U.S. policy toward the conflict, which has raged for nearly three years since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The decision reflects broader concerns about American military readiness and the sustainability of current support levels for international conflicts.
As the Trump administration navigates competing priorities of fiscal responsibility, domestic defense needs and international security commitments, the decisions made in coming weeks could reshape the trajectory of the Ukraine conflict and broader U.S. strategic posture.
The pause underscores the complex calculations facing the administration as it seeks to balance immediate diplomatic goals with longer-term strategic considerations across multiple theaters of potential conflict.
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