Russia Nearing Military Limits Despite Recent Ukraine Advances, Australian Expert Says
Today’s email is brought to you by Empower your podcasting vision with a suite of creative solutions at your fingertips.
Russia is approaching the limits of its combat power in Ukraine despite making recent dangerous territorial gains near the strategic city of Pokrovsk, according to retired Australian Major General Gus McLachlan.
In an interview with ABC News Australia, McLachlan said Russia has achieved a "dangerous penetration" through Ukrainian defenses north of Pokrovsk but assessed that Moscow is close to "culminating," meaning it lacks the combat power to make significant further gains against Ukrainian forces.
"Most of us think Russia is close to what we call culminating, meaning they don't have the combat power now to make much of a further gain in the Ukrainian defenses," McLachlan told ABC News. "That said, the Ukrainians are under tremendous pressure themselves."
The military assessment comes as sources report that U.S. and Russian leaders are discussing proposals for Russia to relinquish small pockets of occupied Ukrainian territory in exchange for Ukraine ceding larger areas and freezing front lines elsewhere.
Russian Breakthrough Near Pokrovsk
McLachlan described the Russian advance near Pokrovsk as a significant tactical development, comparing it to Ukraine's own penetration into Russia's Kursk region in August 2023.
"The Russians have made quite a dangerous penetration. We call it a salient. They've punched a hole through Ukrainian defenses," he said. "The risk, of course, is not that the sort of laser-like penetration will be a danger in itself, but you can follow on with troops into that penetration and then expand out like opening an umbrella."
The military expert said both the Russian advance and Ukraine's earlier Kursk operation were timed to coincide with major diplomatic developments, suggesting strategic coordination between battlefield operations and peace negotiations.
"It's no coincidence that both of those attacks have been linked to peace talks or major strategic events," McLachlansaid. "The Russians have sought to achieve battlefield advantage that would put pressure on Zelensky."
McLachlan assessed that Ukrainian forces have successfully contained the Russian penetration for now.
Strategic Value of Pokrovsk Region
The area around Pokrovsk holds particular significance for both sides in the conflict, according to McLachlan who described it as falling "at the heart of the area that Russia claims that give legitimacy to their invasion."
Russia justifies its presence in the region by claiming the area contains Russian-speaking populations loyal to Moscow, McLachlan explained. The region also offers substantial economic value through its industrial capacity and underground resources.
"It is also a heavily industrialized area with enormous industrial capacity that could be mobilized by either country. And it includes resources under the ground. This is a rich prize for both sides," he said.
However, McLachlan noted that historical context complicates Russian claims to the territory. He said the area was "very strongly Ukrainian before the Stalinist purges" when "Russian-speaking people were inserted to expand Russian influence."
Current sentiment among local populations appears to favor Ukraine, according to the military expert.
"Everything I'm reading is that the population there are less and less inclined to be part of Russia and want to remain in Ukraine," McLachlansaid. "But despite that, that's the claims that Putin makes that legitimize his attempts to take control."
Truth matters. Quality journalism costs.
Your subscription to Mencari directly funds the investigative reporting our democracy needs. For less than a coffee per week, you enable our journalists to uncover stories that powerful interests would rather keep hidden. There is no corporate influence involved. No compromises. Just honest journalism when we need it most.
Not ready to be paid subscribe, but appreciate the newsletter ? Grab us a beer or snag the exclusive ad spot at the top of next week's newsletter.
Brutal Ground Combat
McLachlan painted a stark picture of the fighting in eastern Ukraine, describing conditions that blend World War I-era tactics with 21st-century technology.
"This is an incredibly brutal fight. I mean, we're not really seeing the worst of it, mostly because it's too dangerous for journalists and reporters to approach," he said. "This is a cross between World War I battles with the science fiction overlay."
The combat features "tremendous barrages of artillery, grinding attacks with the buzz and overhead of 21st century drones and ground robotic vehicles moving forward," according to McLachlan .
He cited an example of the technological warfare, describing social media footage showing a Ukrainian soldier rescued by drone after being "pinned down for days in a forward pit."
"To rescue him, a drone flew forward with an electric motorbike for him to make a rapid escape," McLachlan said. "I mean, it's an incredible merging of violence, brutality and almost science fiction."
Manpower Challenges on Both Sides
While assessing that Russia is approaching its combat limits, McLachlan acknowledged that Ukraine faces its own constraints, particularly regarding military personnel.
"They have chosen not to expand their conscription. And so manpower is short on the Ukrainian side as well," he said.
The military expert suggested Russia's strategy may involve seeking a temporary halt to fighting to rebuild its forces.
"We think what the Russians would like to do is have some sort of cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, but only to rearm and re-equip," McLachlan said. "And I think that's what is making the rest of Europe nervous."
He specifically mentioned concerns among Baltic states about potential future Russian aggression.
"Countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, they fear that they may be next," McLachlan said. "So I do think Russia is culminating in the short term, but I don't think they're finished."
Peace Talks and Russian Strategy
McLachlan expressed skepticism about Russian intentions regarding potential peace negotiations, noting contradictions between Moscow's stated willingness to discuss terms and continued military actions.
"The reality is that they have said they won't accept a ceasefire, meaning that fighting will continue right up to the point of any agreement, which, of course, is quite counter to what you would really do if you were seeking peace," he said.
He pointed to ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure as evidence of continued aggression.
"We're seeing the almost nightly attacks in Ukraine, the attacks on the population by drones and missiles continue," McLachlan said.
The military expert suggested Russian President Vladimir Putin may be attempting to manipulate potential peace negotiations with the incoming Trump administration.
"I think, if anything, it's likely that Putin is gaming this attempt by the Trump administration to achieve win-win in every category that it is after," he said.
Security Guarantees and International Role
Looking ahead to potential peace arrangements, McLachlan identified security guarantees for Ukraine as the crucial factor in any sustainable agreement.
"I think this is the critical factor is really who is going to guarantee the safety of Ukraine after this end to hostilities," he said.
He assessed that Ukraine would prefer American security guarantees, noting that "the Americans are probably the only power capable of genuinely deterring Russian aggression."
While ruling out U.S. ground troops, McLachlan suggested American involvement might focus on air defense.
"I don't think that will run to troops on the ground, but I do think it might extend to something like the airspace over Ukraine, where the Americans might guarantee the safety of the Ukrainian skies," he said.
European involvement would likely require a different approach, according to McLachlan .
"The Europeans on the other side would potentially have to deploy troops into the country if they were to guarantee security, because they don't simply have the combat power or the deterrent effect that America would bring," he said.
McLachlan noted that European military buildup efforts face significant challenges.
"The Europeans are mobilizing their military but off a low base, and it will take them some time to generate the stocks of ammunition and war reserves that are really needed should Russia resume their offensive," he said.
The assessment comes as diplomatic efforts continue to explore potential frameworks for ending the conflict that has raged for nearly three years, with both military and political considerations shaping the complex negotiations.
Got a News Tip?
Contact our editor via Proton Mail encrypted, X Direct Message, LinkedIn, or email. You can securely message him on Signal by using his username, Miko Santos.
Sustaining Mencari Requires Your Support
Independent journalism costs money. Help us continue delivering in-depth investigations and unfiltered commentary on the world's real stories. Your financial contribution enables thorough investigative work and thoughtful analysis, all supported by a dedicated community committed to accuracy and transparency.
Subscribe today to unlock our full archive of investigative reporting and fearless analysis. Subscribing to independent media outlets represents more than just information consumption—it embodies a commitment to factual reporting.
As well as knowing you’re keeping Mencari (Australia) alive, you’ll also get:
Get breaking news AS IT HAPPENS - Gain instant access to our real-time coverage and analysis when major stories break, keeping you ahead of the curve
Unlock our COMPLETE content library - Enjoy unlimited access to every newsletter, podcast episode, and exclusive archive—all seamlessly available in your favorite podcast apps.
Join the conversation that matters - Be part of our vibrant community with full commenting privileges on all content, directly supporting The Evening Post (Australia)
Catch up on some of Mencari’s recent stories:
It only takes a minute to help us investigate fearlessly and expose lies and wrongdoing to hold power accountable. Thanks!