NATO leaders will likely approve a dramatic increase in defense spending targets to 5% of GDP during their summit this week, the alliance's Secretary-General announced Monday, marking the most significant shift in military investment requirements since the organization's founding.
The decision, expected Wednesday, comes as the 32-member alliance faces what officials describe as the most challenging security environment in decades, with Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, China's military expansion and Iran's nuclear ambitions creating multiple crisis points simultaneously.
"I'm already very glad that as an alliance, we will decide, most likely on Wednesday, there is an agreement in the North Atlantic Council on this to move to get to this minimum of 5% of defense spending," the Secretary-General said during a press conference ahead of the summit's formal sessions.
The proposed increase would more than double the current 2% GDP target that many allies have struggled to meet. Only 23 of 32 NATO members currently spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense, according to alliance data.
Ukraine Support Accelerates
The spending announcement coincided with new figures showing accelerated support for Ukraine's defense against Russian forces. NATO allies have pledged $35 billion in military aid this year alone, compared to slightly over $50 billion for all of 2024.
"The fact that this year already, not even having reached the half-year mark of the 1st of July, we are now at a total pledge of 35 billion compared to last year," the Secretary-General said. "For the full year, a little over 50 billion shows you that it is rather increasing than decreasing."
The summit's communique, already agreed upon by NATO ambassadors, will include "important language about Ukraine, including connecting the defense spending up to 2035 to Ukraine and the need for Ukraine to stay in the fight," according to the Secretary-General.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will participate in multiple sessions throughout the summit, though the NATO-Ukraine Council will not hold a formal meeting during the proceedings. Instead, leaders opted for "one concentrated session with the 32" NATO members, supplemented by smaller bilateral meetings.
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China's Military Buildup Raises Alarms
NATO officials expressed growing concern about China's rapid military expansion, which they view as directly connected to the conflict in Ukraine. The Secretary-General noted that Chinese defense companies now occupy three to five spots among the world's top 10 largest defense contractors, compared to zero just a few years ago.
"We know that out of the 10 biggest defense companies, only a couple of years ago, you would not find any Chinese companies," he said. "At this moment, you will find three to five Chinese defense companies in the top 10 of biggest defense companies in the world."
The alliance has deepened cooperation with Indo-Pacific partners Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand specifically to address concerns about Chinese military activities, particularly regarding Taiwan.
"We are all very worried, of course, about the situation in Taiwan," the Secretary-General said. "And we also know that there is a risk that if the Chinese will try anything with Taiwan, that no doubt he will call his junior partner, Mr. Putin, and make sure that that junior partner in that relationship with China, Mr. Putin, will keep us busy here."
Iran Nuclear Threat Dominates Discussions
The Secretary-General identified Iran's potential acquisition of nuclear weapons as his "biggest fear" amid escalating Middle East tensions. Recent U.S. military actions against Iranian facilities prompted questions about NATO's position on regime change and potential alliance involvement in the region.
"My biggest fear would be Iran having a nuclear weapon," he said. "Really, let's focus on the essentials here. My biggest fear would be for Iran to own and be able to use and deploy a nuclear weapon. It will be a stranglehold on Israel, on the whole region and other parts of the world."
NATO maintains a consistent position that "Iran should not have its hands on a nuclear weapon," according to the Secretary-General, who declined to comment on specific U.S. military operations or potential regime change scenarios.
When asked about Norwegian Prime Minister's statement that U.S. attacks on Iran violated international law, the Secretary-General disagreed. "I would not agree that this is against international law, what the U.S. did," he said.
Regional Security Concerns
The summit will address multiple regional flashpoints beyond Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific. Officials highlighted concerns about Russian hybrid warfare targeting Moldova ahead of parliamentary elections this autumn.
Victoria Klipka from TV8 Moldova asked about Russian efforts to undermine Moldovan democracy, noting that "Russia has now given up on its plans to stop Moldova on its tracks, and it's utilizing the entire arsenal of hybrid warfare tactics."
The Secretary-General confirmed close cooperation between NATO and Moldova, including his recent visit with President Maia Sandu after returning from Odessa. Romania, a NATO ally, plays a key role in helping Moldova defend against hybrid threats.
In the Western Balkans, five of eight countries are NATO members, including Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, Slovenia and Croatia. The alliance maintains KFOR peacekeeping forces in Kosovo and coordinates with European Union forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Fundamental Security Shift
The proposed spending increase reflects what officials describe as a fundamental shift in global security dynamics since Russia's 2014 occupation of Crimea and full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
"The security situation has dramatically changed over the last couple of years," the Secretary-General said. "Of course, in 2014, with the occupation of Crimea, but particularly with the full onslaught in 2022 on Ukraine, and since then, this massive reconstituting of Russia, of its armed forces."
The changing threat environment has forced NATO to refocus on territorial defense after years of operations outside alliance borders in Afghanistan and Libya.
"Maybe the biggest change in NATO since the fall of the Berlin Wall is that we have to re-concentrate on NATO territory, because NATO territory itself is under threat," the Secretary-General explained.
Alliance Coordination
The summit represents a departure from previous formats, with leaders choosing one concentrated session among all 32 members rather than separate meetings with the European Union, Indo-Pacific partners and Ukraine.
"Here we made a choice to have one concentrated session with the 32, and around that session with the 32, many smaller sessions," the Secretary-General said, comparing the format to previous summits in London and Brussels.
The streamlined approach reflects the alliance's focus on core territorial defense responsibilities while maintaining partnerships with non-NATO allies facing similar security challenges.
Individual NATO members continue to navigate Middle East crises "in close consultation with the American ally," according to the Secretary-General, though the alliance as a whole concentrates on Euro-Atlantic security concerns.
Military Readiness Requirements
The increased spending target aims to ensure all NATO members can fulfill Article 5 collective defense obligations when called upon. The Secretary-General emphasized that allies must be "able to deliver those capabilities, what they promised to deliver, so that when that call comes, we stand there together, united, not only in spirit, but also in practice."
Current defense spending varies significantly among NATO members. The United States spends approximately 3.5% of GDP on defense, while several European allies fall below the existing 2% target.
The 5% target would require substantial budget reallocations in most member countries, potentially affecting domestic spending priorities as governments balance defense requirements with social programs and infrastructure investments.
NATO's Defense Planning Process will likely need significant updates to accommodate the new spending levels and ensure interoperability among allied forces as military capabilities expand.
Summit Outcomes
Wednesday's formal decision on defense spending targets will cap months of negotiations among NATO ambassadors and defense ministers. The North Atlantic Council has already reached agreement on the proposal, according to summit organizers.
Beyond spending targets, the summit will address industrial production capabilities, weapons delivery timelines and coordination mechanisms for supporting Ukraine through 2035.
The gathering brings together heads of state and government from all 32 NATO members, with additional participation from Indo-Pacific partners and European Union leadership.
Results will influence defense budget planning cycles across member nations for the next decade, potentially representing the largest peacetime military investment increase since the Cold War.
The Secretary-General concluded the press conference by emphasizing the summit's historic significance: "This summit is so important because what we need to have is that when the call comes to any individual ally to deliver to the collective endeavor what is necessary to defend NATO territory in case of an Article 5 attack, then we have to be sure that all allies are able to deliver."
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