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The Liberal Party's handling of Senator Jacinta Price's controversial comments about Indian Australian voters threatens to entrench existing electoral disadvantages with migrant communities that could prove decisive in suburban battleground seats, according to polling expert Simon Welsh.
Welsh, director of Redbridge Group, told Sky News Monday that Indian Australians currently vote 70-30 for Labor despite holding values that should align with Liberal ideology, creating a paradox that highlights the party's broader challenges with multicultural communities.
"If I was voting on economics, absolutely, I'd be voting for the Liberal Party. But I just have this sense that they don't like people like me," Welsh said, quoting a focus group participant who captured the community's sentiment.
The analysis comes as National Party leader David Littleproud distanced his party from Liberal infighting over Price's comments, describing the controversy as "self-indulgent" while declining to encourage Price's potential return to the Nationals.
Welsh warned that continued alienation of Indian Australian voters will make Liberal gains in outer suburban seats "almost impossible," particularly in Melbourne and Sydney where the community's electoral influence is rapidly expanding.
"For however long it stays, sort of 70, 30, two-thirds, one-thirds, you know, the liberals are not going to pick up they're not going to make a dent in any of those outer suburban seats," Welsh said during the AM Agenda program.
The electoral expert described Indian Australians as "highly aspirational" with values including "individual advancement, you know, hustle and grind, working the second job" and consumption patterns favoring private education and health care.
"They have all these sort of attitudinal behavioral markers that point to liberal um sort of ideology and liberal voting patents but something interesting happens," Welsh said.
The disconnect stems from perceptions of anti-migrant sentiment within the Liberal Party, exacerbated by COVID-era visa policy changes and ongoing rhetoric around migration levels.
"For a community that is still very much in the sort of the growth phase, the active migration phase, where they're looking to bring family over and people wanting to move to Australia, the kind of sort of rhetoric they're hearing from the Liberal Party around migration, they can't help but take it personally," Welsh said.
The electoral implications extend beyond the Indian Australian community, with Welsh noting similar patterns among Chinese Australians who have "drifted away from the party over electoral cycles" due to rhetoric questioning their loyalty.
"So that then makes it very hard to pick up more of those kind of middle suburban seats, again, particularly Sydney and Melbourne, but other areas as well," he said.
Welsh described the Liberal approach as counterproductive to suburban seat ambitions.
"So if you wanted to design a strategy to make it really hard to pick up seats in the suburbs of our major cities, this is the way to do it. And it's no surprise then that what we see is the Liberal Party being pushed out of the suburbs of our major cities," he said.
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Meanwhile, Littleproud emphasized the Nationals' independence from Liberal internal disputes while refusing to encourage Price's rumored interest in returning to his party.
"If she wanted to come back, then that's something I'd consult with our party room. It's not something I'll be encouraging, but if it's something that she made a decision, then that'll be a determination I'd want to take back to our party room," Littleproud told Sky News.
The National Party leader described Price's initial decision to join the Liberals as disappointing but final.
"The reality is, is Jacinta made a decision. I respect that. I was disappointed in it. And we're going to move on, focus on ourselves and rebuilding the coalition from the nationals' perspective," he said.
Littleproud criticized the public nature of Liberal infighting as disconnected from voter priorities.
"Let's be honest, all this played out in the media isn't what the Australian people want. They want us focused on them, not on ourselves," he said.
His comments contrast with National Senator Matt Canavan's earlier suggestion that Price would be welcomed back "like a prodigal sister," highlighting divisions within the Nationals about her potential return.
"I wouldn't pre-empt what the party room would say. Individuals within the party room will have their own point of view. Some will express them publicly. Some will express them privately if we get to that juncture," Littleproud said.
Welsh's analysis reveals the electoral stakes of the current controversy, with Indian Australian political influence "only just beginning" due to citizenship and enrollment processes that take time to complete.
"We know that cohort is becoming far more electorally important as numbers grow. So they're really important. We also know that the influence of the Indian community on Australian elections is only just beginning," Welsh said.
The community's aspirational characteristics should make them natural Liberal supporters, according to polling data showing consistent alignment with conservative economic principles and lifestyle choices.
"When we talk to members of the Indian community, and I'll talk in generalisations here, is we find a community that is highly aspirational. They value notions of individual advancement," Welsh said.
However, perception of Liberal hostility toward migration and multicultural communities overrides economic alignment in voting decisions.
"It is this perception of sort of an anti-migrant kind of underlying core that this community is hearing from the Liberals that makes them feel not only not represented by the Liberal Party, but potentially sort of a target of the Liberal Party," Welsh said.
The expert noted that COVID-era policy changes affecting visa holders contributed to negative perceptions among migrant communities about Liberal commitment to multiculturalism.
"And the things that happened during COVID with those changes on visa statuses and those sorts of things certainly plays into it," he said.
Littleproud emphasized the Nationals' preference for focusing on economic issues rather than internal political disputes, citing cost-of-living pressures as the primary concern for Australian families.
"All this talk is nonsense as far as I'm concerned. Australian people don't want us talking about ourselves. They want us talking about them and the cost of living crisis that Anthony Albanese has created," he said.
The National Party leader highlighted his party's electoral success while urging Liberal colleagues to strengthen their position.
"In the last election, we won all our seats and nearly pulled off a miracle in Bendigo of winning a safe Labor seat. So the Nationals will just stick to our knitting, the Liberals, and hope that the Liberals can rebuild," Littleproud said.
Welsh's analysis suggests the Liberal electoral challenges extend far beyond individual controversies to fundamental questions about party positioning on multiculturalism and migration.
The polling expert's warning about suburban seat accessibility comes as the Liberal Party seeks to rebuild from its 2022 election losses, particularly in urban constituencies where multicultural communities represent significant voting blocs.
The Indian Australian community's rapid growth and increasing political engagement make their voting patterns particularly significant for future electoral calculations in key marginal seats.
Welsh emphasized that Liberal difficulties with migrant communities represent a systematic problem rather than isolated incidents.
"This is very much part of that story" of Liberal suburban electoral decline, he said.
The controversy over Price's comments has highlighted broader tensions within the coalition about migration policy, multicultural outreach, and internal party management during opposition periods.
Littleproud's emphasis on National Party independence reflects the party's strategy of maintaining distinct identity while supporting coalition unity on key issues.
The electoral expert's analysis provides quantitative context for political debates about migration and multiculturalism, demonstrating concrete electoral consequences of party positioning on these issues.
As the Liberal Party seeks to rebuild its electoral coalition, Welsh's findings suggest significant challenges in communities that should represent natural conservative supporters based on economic and social values.
The intersection of migration policy debates and electoral strategy continues shaping coalition dynamics as opposition parties prepare for the next federal election campaign.
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