Israel Launches Multi-Day Strike Campaign Against Iranian Nuclear Program
Israel launched a coordinated military operation against Iranian nuclear facilities and personnel Friday, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirming strikes targeting scientists and infrastructure involved in what he called Iran's bomb-making program.
Netanyahu said the military operation "will continue for several days" and declared Israel "had no choice but to act to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions." The Israeli government imposed a state of emergency as officials braced for potential Iranian retaliation.
The strikes represent a significant escalation in the long-running shadow war between the two Middle Eastern powers and threaten to derail weekend negotiations between the United States and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program.
"We heard from Netanyahu a short time ago. He says that they've targeted nuclear scientists and those building what he called the Iranian bomb," according to broadcast reports from Israeli officials.
Michael Shoebridge, Director of Strategic Analysis at Australia Defence Expert, said Israel's previous attacks had weakened Iran's defensive capabilities, making the current strikes more feasible.
"Israel really damaged Iran's ability to defend itself with previous attacks. So they destroyed a whole lot of Iran's military and air defence capability, which has made this set of strikes more feasible for them," Shoebridge said in broadcast comments.
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The operation comes despite recent U.S. intelligence assessments suggesting Iran had not moved toward weaponizing its nuclear program. Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence, said two months ago there was "no indication of Iran undertaking a nuclearisation path at the moment," according to Middle East analyst Roger Shannon.
"So there's a disconnect between what the Israeli government is saying and certainly what the US Intelligence Committee or community has been saying," Shannon noted.
Iran has steadily increased its uranium enrichment levels since the United States withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal during President Trump's first term. Iranian uranium is now enriched to approximately 60%, giving Tehran a "relatively short breakout time" to weapons-grade material if it chose to weaponize, Shannon explained.
Weapons-grade uranium requires enrichment to around 90%, but the technical leap from 60% to that level is significantly shorter than earlier stages of the enrichment process.
The timing of Israel's strikes appears linked to intelligence suggesting an imminent Iranian threat, though specifics remain unclear. Shannon questioned the timing, noting the disconnect with recent U.S. intelligence assessments.
"It would be very interesting to understand what intelligence or the reason for the timing that Israel has undertaken this attack," Shannon said.
Israeli military officials targeted multiple sites in what experts described as an attempt to eliminate key Iranian nuclear expertise and infrastructure. However, analysts noted significant limitations in Israel's ability to destroy deeply buried Iranian facilities.
"The thing that still looks the hardest is to actually destroy some of Iran's underground nuclear facilities. The Iranians buried them deep, and only the Americans have got the kind of bunker-busting equipment to do that. I don't think the Israelis have that," Shoebridge observed.
Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute's International Security Program, agreed with this assessment, saying Israel's capabilities "are not going to be sufficient to really do the kind of damage that would be necessary to really take that program down or at least stop it for many years at a time."
This limitation may explain Israel's focus on personnel rather than just infrastructure. "According at least to the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, these attacks are designed to strike the scientists involved in the nuclear program and in the missile program," Roggeveen said.
The strikes effectively eliminate prospects for the sixth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations scheduled for this weekend. Shannon said talks would be "the first thing that would be off the table" following the Israeli action.
"If you're Iranians and your country's been bombed by one of the US's closest allies in the region, you're not going to be holding talks at the same time," Shannon explained.
President Trump had reportedly asked Israel not to launch the attack, and U.S. officials say America was not directly involved in the strikes. However, the United States issued orders for military families to relocate from several Middle Eastern locations, suggesting advance knowledge of the operation.
"The US gave an order for military families to relocate from a number of locations in the Middle East. And that wouldn't have been done without forewarning or an understanding that this type of military action was imminent," Shannon said.
Iran faces limited options for immediate retaliation. Israel's previous strikes targeted Iranian ballistic missile programs, though analysts believe Iran retains significant offensive capabilities.
"This kind of direct attack really can't go unanswered by Iran, but its options are relatively limited at the moment," Shannon said. "Israel has targeted its ballistic missile programs, but it's unlikely they would have been able to degrade all of them or to a sufficient degree that Iran wouldn't be able to launch some kind of retaliatory action."
Iran's regional proxy network has been significantly weakened over the past 18 months, particularly Lebanese Hezbollah, which has been "militarily degraded to a significant degree," according to Shannon. This limits Tehran's options for asymmetric responses through allied forces.
Beyond military retaliation, Iran could pursue non-kinetic responses including withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, cessation of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, or acceleration of its uranium enrichment program.
"Unless you guarantee that you stop it, and that's impossible in a military sense, then you give Iran every incentive to accelerate that program," Shannon warned.
Israeli military officials expressed confidence in their defensive capabilities despite acknowledging some Iranian missiles could penetrate their defenses. A recent Houthi missile successfully struck Tel Aviv Airport, demonstrating the imperfect nature of defensive systems.
"Israeli air defence and missile defence systems have proven to be up to the task, and Israeli military power is able to stop Iran from launching some of these systems," Shoebridge said. "But even with their level of defensive capability, some of those missiles are going to get through."
The international community called for restraint following news of the strikes. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong was among the first officials to call for calm, though specific details of international coordination remained unclear.
Western allies had previously assisted Israel in defending against Iranian missile attacks by providing air defense assets and coordination. Whether similar support would be available amid current circumstances remained uncertain, according to Shannon.
The strikes mark a dramatic escalation in Israeli-Iranian tensions and represent one of the most direct military confrontations between the two powers. Iran has specifically developed its missile and drone arsenals to target Israel, making retaliation highly likely despite the country's weakened defensive position.
Netanyahu's decision to proceed with the operation despite U.S. requests for restraint suggests Israeli intelligence indicated an imminent Iranian nuclear threat that required immediate action. The multi-day nature of the campaign indicates Israel intends comprehensive degradation of Iranian nuclear capabilities rather than symbolic strikes.
Iranian missile capabilities have "made some significant leaps in recent years" and remain "very well protected," according to Roggeveen, suggesting Tehran retains options for substantial retaliation despite recent Israeli successes against Iranian air defenses.
The operation threatens to destabilize broader Middle Eastern dynamics and complicates U.S. diplomatic efforts to prevent Iranian nuclear weapons development through negotiation rather than military action. With weekend talks now impossible, the path forward for nuclear diplomacy remains unclear.
International observers will closely monitor Iranian responses in coming days to determine whether the situation escalates into broader regional conflict or whether diplomatic channels can be restored after the immediate crisis passes.
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