Today is October 11 and here is your Inside Auspol
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After two years of conflict, Israel’s cabinet ratified a ceasefire agreement with Hamas this week, with the militant group agreeing to release 20 living hostages within 72 hours. President Donald Trump, who applied unprecedented diplomatic pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, called it “probably the biggest deal ever made.” The first phase addresses immediate humanitarian needs including hostage exchanges, aid flow, and partial Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza, where the majority of 2.3 million residents have been internally displaced.
However, analysts from former U.S. diplomats to Palestinian experts emphasize this is merely a pause in hostilities, not lasting peace. The critical second phase—covering Gaza’s future governance, Hamas disarmament, and international security arrangements—remains unresolved and will require separate negotiations. Experts warn of circular challenges: Israel may refuse to withdraw if Hamas doesn’t disarm, while Hamas has no incentive to disarm if Israel doesn’t commit to full withdrawal. With Trump having less than four years remaining in office and questions about sustained international investment in Gaza’s reconstruction, the fragile ceasefire’s transformation into durable peace remains deeply uncertain.
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