Former Security Chief Warns Asia Most Dangerous Theatre as Australia Prepares Critical Trump Meeting
Ex-Home Affairs Secretary urges October 20 summit to shape US thinking on China while policy remains formative, cites Taiwan and South China Sea as direct confrontation risks
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Asia represents the most dangerous global conflict zone despite appearing quieter than Europe or the Middle East, according to former Australian Home Affairs Secretary Mike Pezzulo, who warned the region carries the highest risk of direct great power confrontation and urged Australia to use an upcoming meeting with President Donald Trump to influence American strategic thinking.
Speaking on Sky News AM Agenda today, Pezzulo described the October 20 meeting between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Trump as a “golden opportunity” arriving at a “perfect time” to inject Australian perspectives while US policy toward China remains “still probably quite formative.”
“Even though it’s the quietest, it’s the one that carries the most risk,” Pezzulo said, comparing Asia to active conflict zones in Ukraine and Gaza. “Because unlike Europe and the Middle East, where you don’t have two great powers directly confronting one another, in Asia, there is a prospect of a direct clash over something like Taiwan, the South China Sea.”
The assessment comes as Australia navigates increasingly complex relationships with Washington, its primary security ally, and Beijing, its largest trading partner, while regional tensions escalate over territorial disputes and Taiwan’s status.
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Strategic Window Closing
Pezzulo emphasized the urgency of the upcoming summit, arguing the next six to 18 months will prove “critical” for shaping American strategy in the Indo-Pacific.
“This meeting comes at a perfect time for Australia to start to inject its views, to outline its interests and to shape American thinking at a time when it’s still probably quite formative,” he said.
The former security chief suggested Trump has not yet made definitive decisions about risking military conflict with China, creating space for allied input.
“I don’t think the President’s made a hard and fast decision about whether he’s prepared to risk war,” Pezzulo said.
However, he pointed to recent signals suggesting intensive Pentagon planning for potential China scenarios. Trump’s meeting with generals and admirals, widely reported for comments about military fitness standards, carried deeper strategic implications, Pezzulo argued.
“The subtext of that, the subtext was this is a military machine that needs to be ready to go to war,” he said. “Frankly, there’s only one war that I think is preoccupying them because they can handle just about every other contingency. The one that I think is preoccupying them is if it came to a conflict with China, how would we prevail and indeed would we prevail?”
Pezzulo said extensive consideration is being given to that question in Washington and Honolulu, where US Indo-Pacific Command is headquartered.
Australia’s Leverage Points
The former Home Affairs Secretary identified Australia’s geographical position as the nation’s primary leverage in discussions with Trump.
“If we have any leverage, it’s our geographical position when it comes to China,” the Sky News host noted, with Pezzulo affirming the assessment.
Australia has successfully navigated one major test of the bilateral relationship. The AUKUS defense pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and United States has survived Trump’s return to office, avoiding the fate of other international agreements the administration has reconsidered or abandoned.
Pezzulo argued Australia should use the October 20 meeting to initiate broader strategic conversations about regional stability frameworks.
“I think this is a golden opportunity to start a conversation, not to end the conversation, but to start a conversation about, Mr President, what do you see as, what does peace look like in Asia?” he said.
Multilateral System Failures
The former security chief dismissed reliance on international institutions to maintain regional peace, citing China’s track record of ignoring unfavorable rulings.
“It can’t just simply be calling for the UN and the multilateral system to impose the rules that everyone will respect. We know that China will not do that,” Pezzulo said. “There’s already a permanent court of arbitration ruling saying that their claims over the South China Sea are not accepted. They just blast past that.”
The 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling, brought by the Philippines, rejected China’s expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea. Beijing refused to recognize the decision and continued building military installations on disputed features.
Pezzulo argued only hard power dynamics can preserve stability in Asia.
“The only thing that’s going to hold the peace in Asia is, frankly, great power engagement, deterrence by the US and its allies and partners of China, and, frankly, deterrence means a willingness to engage, regrettably if it comes to it, in combat with a view to defeat any aggression,” he said.
Trade-Security Nexus
Background trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing could provide an opening for broader strategic discussions, Pezzulo suggested.
“There is something going on in the background on China regarding trade at the moment,” he said. “It’ll be really interesting to see whether the Chinese side and Xi himself decides to play some of the political cards that he’s got to say, look, if you’re on a trade deal, I want to start to talk about how I get my strategic goals in Asia to my satisfaction without you and I coming to a clash.”
The comment reflects growing recognition that economic and security issues in the Indo-Pacific cannot be separated. China has previously used trade measures as diplomatic tools, including imposing restrictions on Australian exports during periods of bilateral tension.
Australia partially normalized trade relations with China in recent years, lifting restrictions on products including wine and barley. However, strategic competition over influence in the Pacific Islands, military build-up in the South China Sea, and divergent positions on Taiwan continue to create friction.
US Attention Divided
Pezzulo acknowledged Trump remains focused on active conflicts in Europe and the Middle East but emphasized the administration is conducting serious strategic planning for Asia.
“I don’t think the United States is preoccupied with the China relationship or security in Asia at the moment, but I think they’re thinking very deeply about it,” he said.
The distinction matters for Australian diplomacy. While immediate attention focuses elsewhere, foundational strategic assumptions about China are being formed or reformed within the Trump administration.
Pezzulo characterized this as creating an optimal window for allied influence.
“The next six, 12 and 18 months are going to be critical,” he said. “This meeting comes at a perfect time for Australia to start to inject its views, to outline its interests and to shape American thinking at a time when it’s still probably quite formative.”
Taiwan and South China Sea Flashpoints
The former security chief identified Taiwan and the South China Sea as the most likely triggers for direct US-China military confrontation.
China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out using force to achieve reunification. The United States maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity, neither confirming nor denying whether it would defend Taiwan militarily while providing the island with defensive weapons.
In the South China Sea, China has built military installations on disputed features, challenging freedom of navigation principles that underpin US naval presence in the region. Regular close encounters between Chinese and American military forces create ongoing risks of accidental escalation.
Unlike proxy conflicts in Ukraine or the Middle East, any Taiwan or South China Sea crisis would likely involve direct engagement between American and Chinese forces, raising stakes dramatically.
Questions for Washington
Pezzulo suggested Australia should push Trump to articulate a clear vision for regional stability rather than simply maintaining deterrent posture.
The implication is that current US strategy, focused on military readiness and alliance strengthening, may lack a coherent endgame or framework for coexistence with a rising China.
Australia faces particular challenges in this environment. Economic interdependence with China creates vulnerabilities, while security dependence on the United States limits strategic autonomy. The AUKUS agreement, committing Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, represents the most significant defense posture shift in generations.
Pezzulo’s comments suggest Australia should use its position as a major non-NATO ally with substantial regional equities to push for more sophisticated American thinking about long-term competition management with Beijing.
Strategic Patience Required
The former Home Affairs Secretary indicated the Trump administration has not crystallized its approach to China despite clear concerns about military competition.
This creates both opportunity and risk for Australia. Early engagement could shape policy in favorable directions, but premature commitment to untested strategies could prove costly.
Pezzulo’s emphasis on starting rather than concluding conversations reflects this reality. The October 20 meeting represents an opening gambit in what will likely be extended strategic dialogue as regional tensions evolve.
His assessment that the next 18 months will prove critical suggests a window for diplomacy before harder military decisions become necessary. Whether Australia can effectively leverage its position to influence American thinking may significantly impact regional stability and the nation’s strategic future.
The former security chief’s analysis underscores how Australia’s geographic position at the intersection of Indo-Pacific power competition creates both vulnerability and potential influence. The October 20 meeting offers a test of whether Canberra can convert regional equities into strategic voice in Washington at a moment when American policy toward China remains fluid.
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