Experts Challenge Nuclear Intelligence Claims as Iran-Israel Conflict Escalates

Credit: Victoria University

Nuclear weapons experts are questioning the intelligence assessments driving the Iran-Israel military confrontation, as international leaders scramble to prevent further escalation through diplomatic channels during a critical two-week window established by President Donald Trump.

Professor Amin Saikal from the Australian National University directly challenged claims that Iran is weeks away from developing nuclear weapons, citing recent testimony from U.S. intelligence officials that contradicts current military justifications.

"The director of the National Intelligence of the United States testified before the Congress a few months ago and said that there was no concrete evidence that Iran was building a nuclear weapon," Saikal told ABC's Afternoon Briefing Friday.

The intelligence dispute emerges as European foreign ministers meet face-to-face with Iranian officials in Geneva, seeking diplomatic solutions while Israeli civilians endure daily air raid sirens and missile attacks.

Intelligence Assessment Contradictions

Saikal referenced parallel statements from the International Atomic Energy Agency director, emphasizing that neither U.S. intelligence nor international nuclear watchdogs have found evidence of systematic Iranian weapons development.

"If the United States really has the evidence, or, for that matter, the Israeli leadership has the evidence that Iran is very close, as Prime Minister Netanyahu has claimed, possibly within a few weeks, then they should really provide the evidence," Saikal said.

The academic drew comparisons to the 2003 Iraq invasion, when weapons of mass destruction claims later proved unfounded.

"We were told that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction and also had connections with al-Qaeda. And, as it turned out, that was not really the case," Saikal said.

White House Timeline Creates Diplomatic Window

Trump's two-week decision timeline, announced Friday by Press Secretary Caroline Levitt, appears linked to intelligence assessments about Iranian nuclear assembly capabilities. Levitt indicated the timeframe represents how long Iranian leadership would need to assemble nuclear weapon components.

The announcement has activated multiple diplomatic channels, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio conducting overnight calls to allied foreign ministers, including Australia's Penny Wong and counterparts in France and Italy.

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