A Middle East political expert cautioned against any attempts at regime change in Iran, drawing stark parallels to the 2003 Iraq invasion and warning of potentially catastrophic consequences that could destabilize the region for decades.
Dr. Dara Conduit, a political specialist from Deakin University, told ABC News Australia that toppling the Iranian government would be "a really, really bad idea" without a viable alternative opposition in place.
"It's a dangerous thing that will have consequences for decades," Conduit said during the interview from Melbourne, as tensions escalate between Israel and Iran following recent military strikes.
The warning comes amid growing international concern over the potential for broader Middle East conflict, with Iran's authoritarian government facing external pressure while maintaining tight control over internal opposition movements.
Conduit emphasized that "this current crisis has started as a result of Israel unilaterally attacking Iran," distinguishing the current situation from any grassroots uprising within the country.
"This crisis hasn't happened because of some sort of popular protest movement or anything that began on the ground inside Iran," she said.
Opposition Lacks Unity, Viability
The Deakin University expert highlighted a critical weakness in any regime change scenario: the absence of organized opposition capable of governing Iran's complex society and economy.
"Inside Iran or outside Iran at the moment, there is no cohesive opposition," Conduit said. "There are countless opposition threads and people who oppose the regime, but there is no viable alternative right now."
She noted that building such an alternative "is something that needs to take place over the course of many years, not out of nowhere."
The Iranian government has systematically weakened opposition through imprisonment, exile and internal division, according to Conduit. Authoritarian regimes "make it very, very difficult for opponents to organise against them" through both obvious repression and subtler tactics that "sow division within the opposition."
Exiled Prince Lacks Support
Conduit dismissed suggestions that Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last monarch, could serve as a Western-backed leader in any transition government.
"He has next to no support on the ground inside Iran and almost no support in the opposition as well or in the opposition in exile," she said.
Pahlavi was part of an opposition coalition formed in 2022 following protests after the death of Mahsa Amini, but "his behaviour as part of that opposition led it to split within a couple of months," according to Conduit.
She noted that Pahlavi's father's regime "was every bit as violent and brutal as the current regime," despite Western perceptions influenced by images of women wearing miniskirts during that era.
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