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New research published in Communications Earth & Environment demonstrates that major deforestation can increase the probability of catastrophic flooding by as much as 700%, transforming rare flood events from once-in-64-year occurrences to once-in-8-year events. The peer-reviewed study, led by Professor Ashish Sharma of UNSW Sydney’s School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, analyzed decades of hydrological data from 21 monitoring stations across 25,000 square kilometers of Australian forest affected by mega fires between 2003 and 2009, providing empirical evidence for a correlation scientists have theorized since the 17th century but struggled to prove conclusively.
The research employed a state-controlled experimental design that isolated forest loss as the primary variable by comparing flood frequencies in identical catchment areas before and after fire-induced deforestation, while controlling for climate patterns including El Niño, La Niña, and other confounding meteorological factors. Researchers utilized more than 50 years of meticulously maintained streamflow data from Australia’s Hydrologic Reference Station network—watersheds specifically monitored for minimal anthropogenic influence—enabling them to demonstrate statistical significance with a p-value of 0.006. The study found that forest canopy, fallen leaves, and root-zone soils collectively intercept 10-30% of rainfall through evapotranspiration, and when this multi-layered absorption capacity is removed, water reaches soil saturation levels dramatically faster, particularly across large-scale watersheds spanning hundreds or thousands of square kilometers.
The findings carry significant implications for the estimated 4 billion people globally who depend on forested headwater catchments for freshwater, including more than 100 million residing in flood-risk zones across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. With global deforestation proceeding at approximately 100,000 square kilometers annually and climate change intensifying wildfire frequency and severity, the research suggests cascading hydrological impacts may fundamentally alter regional flood risk assessments. The study provides quantitative validation for historical observations linking deforestation to increased flooding, from post-French Revolution France to the upper Amazon following 1960s development, where once-in-20-year floods now occur biennially.
Professor Sharma emphasized that the research demonstrates forest clearance itself—independent of subsequent land conversion to impervious surfaces—significantly elevates flood risk through reduced rainfall interception capacity. “If deforestation is happening, then there should be strong consideration for planning rules or regulations regarding habitats downstream, to reduce the enhanced danger they will face from flooding,” Sharma stated, noting that if forest removal proves necessary for development, it should be restricted to areas without vulnerable downstream populations. The study’s co-authors include Dr. Tae-Ho Kang of South Korea’s K-water Institute, Professor Lucy Marshall of the University of Sydney, and Professor Young-Oh Kim of Seoul National University.
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