Coalition Shadow Minister Calls for Long-Term Migration Planning, Criticizes Government's "Absence" of Strategy
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Shadow Immigration and Multicultural Affairs Minister Paul Scarr has intensified pressure on the Albanese government to develop comprehensive long-term migration planning, arguing that Australia’s immigration policy lacks the analytical framework necessary to justify current intake levels to the public.
In an interview with ABC Afternoon Briefing following a major speech last week, Scarr challenged Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke’s assertion that there is “no ideal number” for Australia’s immigration intake, pointing to Treasury forecasts that use a net overseas migration figure of 235,000 annually for planning purposes extending to 2065.
“There needs to be long-term planning, there needs to be a case put with respect to the costs and benefits of different immigration intakes, and that story, that narrative, needs to include the Australian people so that we have a continuing social licence for our migration policy,” Scarr told the program.
The exchange comes amid heightened public debate over immigration levels, which intensified following street protests several weeks ago expressing concerns about migration’s impact on housing supply and infrastructure.
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Burke, speaking at the National Press Club on Tuesday, had criticized the Coalition for “engaging in a debate on migration without facts” by calling for cuts without specifying where those reductions should occur. He emphasized that migration levels needed to be balanced against housing supply and workforce needs.
Scarr rejected Burke’s framing, arguing that the government itself has established a de facto target through Treasury’s long-term modeling. “It’s not really good enough for Tony Burke to say yesterday, as he did, that it’s up to the Coalition to give a number, when, on the basis of Treasury’s own forecast, they’re using 235,000 net overseas migration for decades to come,” the shadow minister said.
The 235,000 figure represents the Centre for Population’s long-term planning assumption, based on the 15-year average before the COVID-19 pandemic. Scarr questioned the wisdom of applying this historical average uniformly across future decades without reassessment.
“It doesn’t seem very wise to me to use the same number for a number of decades moving forward. I think the work needs to be done. I think there needs to be short-term planning, medium-term planning and long-term planning,” Scarr stated.
When pressed on whether the Coalition would provide its own specific target, Scarr indicated that work is underway but declined to commit to a single figure. “When we do produce a number, when we do produce a policy, it needs to be defensible,” he said, adding that any proposal would need to break down figures by different immigration cohorts and explain how housing supply and infrastructure considerations were factored into the calculation.
The shadow minister outlined the Coalition’s current analytical approach: “That work involves looking at the different cohorts in our immigration program, considering the numbers in each cohort, considering things such as the pressure on housing supply, which has been demonstrated in the last report that was issued for the 2025 state of the housing market, considering things like skill shortages, our agricultural sector, our aged care sector.”
Scarr particularly criticized the government’s abandonment of multi-year planning for the permanent migration intake. “During the last year, the federal government said it was going to engage in a multi-year planning approach with respect to the permanent migration intake. And it just dropped that,” he said. “We just got a three-sentence announcement of the permanent migration intake for 2025 with no explanation as to why they dropped the multi-year planning.”
The shadow minister emphasized that his concerns center on coordinated planning across all levels of government. “There needs to be long-term planning across the federal government, the state governments and local government,” Scarr stated.
Current net overseas migration remains “materially still over the long-term average before COVID and the Treasury’s own forecasts,” according to Scarr, who acknowledged the need to balance housing and infrastructure pressures with critical skill shortages, particularly in regional communities and sectors including agriculture, tourism, and aged care.
The debate over migration numbers has become increasingly politically charged, with some Coalition members taking more aggressive stances on the issue. Scarr’s measured approach, articulated in his speech last week, represents an attempt to stake out ground that advocates for reduced immigration levels while avoiding inflammatory rhetoric.
When asked directly whether the Coalition needed to provide a specific number or range, Scarr responded: “Whether it’s a number or it’s a range, we need to break that number down with respect to the different cohorts and provide the explanation as to how we determined that number.”
The shadow minister’s intervention comes as both major parties navigate public sensitivity over immigration’s impact on housing affordability and infrastructure, while simultaneously addressing business sector concerns about labor shortages in key industries.
Burke’s National Press Club address had specifically called out the Coalition for advocating cuts without specifics, framing the opposition’s approach as politically expedient but policy-light. Scarr’s response seeks to turn that criticism back on the government, arguing that Treasury’s own modeling reveals an implicit long-term target that has never been properly justified to the public.
The debate is likely to intensify as both parties position themselves ahead of the next federal election, with immigration policy emerging as a potential defining issue amid ongoing housing affordability challenges and infrastructure constraints in major cities.
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