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Net overseas migration remains 100,000 higher than pre-pandemic averages despite recent declines, prompting the Coalition to demand further cuts and criticize the government for releasing its permanent migration intake with no explanation or long-term planning strategy.
Shadow Immigration Minister Paul Scarr told ABC’s Afternoon Briefing Wednesday that while migration figures have fallen, they remain well above historical norms and the government has provided no narrative about how it will manage policy settings to bring numbers down.
“The figure you referred to for the year ending 31 March 2025 was still at 315,000. Over 315,000. So that’s 100,000 still higher than that 216,000 average before the pandemic,” Scarr said, citing Australian Bureau of Statistics data showing net overseas migration dropped by 178,000 over the past year.
The government released its permanent migration intake announcement in just three sentences, according to Scarr, who said the brevity reflected a lack of strategic planning.
“There was no narrative, there was no explanation, there was no indication of long-term planning as to how the government is going to manage the policy settings to get that figure down to those pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels,” he said.
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Housing Supply Disconnect
Scarr highlighted a growing disconnect between migration levels and housing construction, pointing to stark figures showing Australia built fewer homes in 2024 despite having a larger population.
“In 2014, Australia produced 200 or built 219,000 new dwellings. That’s when the population was three million lower. 2024, when net overseas migration was above 400,000, we built 177,000 dwellings,” he said.
The Shadow Minister said the gap between population growth and housing supply is driving the current debate over migration levels.
“So there’s a real disconnect there in terms of net overseas migration levels and the supply of housing. And that is a really important issue. And I think it’s one of the reasons why we’re having this debate,” Scarr said.
Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke released a brief statement confirming the permanent migration intake would remain at 185,000, the same as the previous year, without providing additional detail on the decision or future planning.
Coalition Policy Development
Asked where the Coalition would make cuts to bring migration numbers down further, Scarr acknowledged the opposition must provide detailed breakdowns of proposed changes across different visa categories.
“I think it is incumbent upon the opposition to, when it’s building its policy, developing its policy to be able to answer the question, well, what are the different cohorts? How do you come up with this number? What percentage of it is family reunion? What percentage of it is skills, et cetera, et cetera?” he said.
Scarr said the Coalition is working through those details as part of its policy development process.
“Obviously, that’s part of our policymaking process,” he said.
Multiple Factors at Play
The Shadow Minister outlined several factors contributing to net overseas migration figures beyond headline visa categories, including asylum applications and visa transitions.
“We must always remember when we’re talking about net overseas migration, we’re talking about arrivals and departures. So both sides of the equation have to be considered,” Scarr said.
He pointed to a backlog of approximately 100,000 people who have made onshore asylum applications and failed but remain in Australia.
“We have seen a real increase in terms of people on various visa classes making, say, for example, onshore asylum applications. And there’s now a backlog of about 100,000 people in Australia who’ve made onshore asylum applications. They’ve failed in terms of those applications, but they’re still onshore. So that’s also an issue,” he said.
Scarr also cited visa hopping, where people move between different visa categories to extend their stay in Australia, as a complicating factor.
“You also have the issue of people doing visa hopping, so moving between different visas in order to lengthen their stay in Australia. So this is a very complicated area,” he said.
The issue of people arriving on one visa and then claiming asylum during long appeals processes has been grappled with by successive governments, according to the interviewer, a point Scarr acknowledged.
“Many of these issues are longstanding, and that has to be recognised, and that adds to complexity, and that’s the importance of the debate,” he said.
International Students Impact
Much of the recent decline in net overseas migration stems from fewer international students, which affects temporary migration figures where year-to-year changes are most visible.
When asked whether the international student cohort drives housing market pressure or whether supply-side issues deserve more focus, Scarr said the situation is multifaceted.
“Well, I think it’s multifaceted. We need to be looking at our housing supply, and it really is critical. And a major factor in terms of housing supply is cost,” he said.
The Shadow Minister cited his own electorate office location at Springfield as an example of capacity constraints driven by economics rather than physical limitations.
“So where my office is located at Springfield, I know there’s capacity to build more high-density housing, but the issue is you can’t build it at a cost you can sell it at with a margin. So that’s a material issue, supply chain issues and also skills issues in terms of having the Labor market force to be able to engage in that level of construction,” Scarr said.
Hastie Comments Defended
Scarr defended colleague Andrew Hastie against criticism from independent MP Allegra Spender, who said the Liberal frontbencher’s social media post about Australians feeling “like strangers in our own home” echoed white nationalist rhetoric from Enoch Powell’s 1968 “Rivers of Blood” speech.
“Look, I think it’s a bit of a long bow, with all due respect to Allegra, to try and draw some sort of connection between Andrew Hastie’s passionate advocacy for his local community, and in particular for young people struggling to buy their first home, and to try and draw some distinction or connection to a speech that was given in the 1960s in a totally different context,” Scarr said.
He said the characterization was unfair to Hastie, who serves as the Coalition’s assistant shadow minister for defence.
Asked whether he would prefer colleagues adopt more nuanced language given some people like Spender find certain rhetoric distressing, Scarr said it is up to individual colleagues to determine how they express themselves.
“I think it’s up to all colleagues as to how they make their arguments, how they express themselves. From my perspective, I like to adopt the approach, which I’ve been adopting in this discussion with you, and these topics are very complicated,” he said.
Scarr emphasized the personal nature of immigration debates for many Australians.
“And I think one of the things about immigration is a lot of people feel these issues personally because of their backgrounds, et cetera. So I think we really need to be cognizant of that,” he said.
Palestine Recognition Response
Speaking in his capacity as Shadow Minister for Multicultural Affairs, Scarr addressed the federal government’s formal recognition of a Palestinian state this week, acknowledging strong community feelings on the issue.
“I think it’s fair to say that there are very strong feelings across the community in relation to this issue. And I, as a senator for Queensland, representing all Queenslanders, I respect those feelings,” he said.
Scarr outlined his personal position on the Middle East conflict.
“From my perspective, I simply want to see peace in relation to the position in the Middle East, in relation to the position in Gaza. I want to see those poor hostages released and some sort of long-term solution where two states can exist side by side behind secure borders which are acknowledged by each and we can actually move forward in a sustainable way in peace,” he said.
Asked whether the government’s strategy of announcing the decision well in advance allowed for public absorption of the significant foreign policy change, Scarr expressed skepticism.
“Perhaps not. I think the bigger issue from my perspective and from the Coalition’s perspective is when you make an announcement like this, how do you justify it on the basis that the two parties who were essentially impacted aren’t at the negotiating table engaging in the discussions themselves in terms of making final decisions with respect to issues like borders, mutual assurances of security,” he said.
Scarr said Hamas’s continued position in Gaza raises additional questions about the government’s policy.
“You’ve got the overlying issue with respect to Hamas still having the position it holds in Gaza. So I think there’s some real serious questions to be asked in relation to the government’s policy position,” he said.
Call for Evidence-Based Debate
Throughout the interview, Scarr repeatedly emphasized the need for measured, evidence-based discussion of immigration policy given its complexity and personal significance for many Australians.
“When we’re engaging in this debate, it needs to be considered and measured and evidence-based,” he said.
The Shadow Minister’s comments come as the government faces pressure from multiple directions on immigration policy, with some calling for further cuts to ease housing pressure while others warn against rhetoric that could strain social cohesion in Australia’s multicultural society.
The net overseas migration figure of 315,000 for the year ending March 2025 represents a significant decline from pandemic-era highs but remains well above the 216,000 average of the five years preceding COVID-19, according to ABS data cited by Scarr.
The Coalition has made reducing immigration a central policy focus, linking it to housing affordability and infrastructure capacity, though it has not yet released detailed plans showing which visa categories would face cuts under an opposition government.
The debate over appropriate migration levels continues to intersect with broader policy challenges including housing supply, infrastructure investment, workforce skills shortages and social cohesion in an increasingly diverse nation.
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