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Retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan has warned that China’s latest military parade, which featured advanced weaponry and drew leaders from Russia, North Korea and Iran, should not be mistaken for proof of combat readiness, describing the event as a political statement rather than a reliable test of military power.
The parade in Beijing, held under the watch of Chinese President Xi Jinping, displayed thousands of uniformed troops, long columns of tanks, fighter jets and nuclear-capable missiles. Xi declared that the Chinese people “are not afraid of violence” and pledged continued military strength, a message that analysts say was aimed at both domestic and international audiences.
Ryan, appearing on Sky News First Edition, said the parade was visually impressive but lacked real indicators of battlefield effectiveness.
“Historically, being able to manage large numbers of synchronised goose-stepping troops isn’t an indicator of military effectiveness, as Nazi Germany and the Soviets found in the Cold War,” Ryan said. “We need to look much deeper at whether this is actually a modern fighting force, despite all the technology.”
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A Show of Strength
The parade was notable for the presence of foreign dignitaries, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Iranian officials. Former Victorian Premier Dan Andrews also attended, standing behind the front rows of authoritarian leaders, a sight that quickly drew commentary in Australia.
Ryan said such displays are carefully designed to project unity and power, both to China’s citizens and its rivals.
“It did look impressive at surface level,” he said. “But it’s one thing to show it all off. The other is to use it coherently on land, sea, air and even in space.”
The general said the more telling signs of Chinese military development come not from parades but from large-scale training exercises and assertive maneuvers in the region.
“For that, we look at the large exercises and the military aggression that China conducts throughout the region, including around Taiwan,” Ryan said. “These are the things that give us real indications of military capability, not very spectacular parades like this.”
Nuclear Reach Raises Alarm
One of the parade’s focal points was the unveiling of new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, capable of reaching the United States and Europe.
Ryan said there is no reason to doubt the range of the weapons. “The intercontinental ballistic missiles the Chinese showed off, both submarine and land-launched, have very long-range indeed,” he said. “They certainly would hold Europe and the United States at risk, particularly the submarine-launched ones.”
While China officially maintains a no-first-use nuclear policy, Ryan cautioned that such assurances do not guarantee restraint.
“Whilst China has a no-first-use policy, that doesn’t mean they won’t do it,” he said. “They’ve certainly learned from Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling over the last three years. We might see that from China in the future.”
Echoes of Xi’s Rhetoric
In his speech, Xi struck a familiar tone, insisting that China’s rise was inevitable and warning against attempts to block it. He praised China’s self-reliance and readiness to face threats.
Ryan said the message was consistent with a decade of Xi’s leadership. “It’s showing don’t stand in our way,” he said. “His messaging yesterday was consistent with pretty much every speech he’s given for the last decade about China’s inevitable rise and that it won’t be in anyone’s interest to stand in the way of that.”
That language, Ryan said, carried a clear signal to countries such as the United States, Japan and Australia, which have voiced concerns about China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, particularly regarding Taiwan.
Taiwan and the Ukraine Lesson
The parade comes as tensions over Taiwan remain high. Beijing claims the self-governing island as its territory, while Taiwan’s government insists it is independent. The United States has pledged to help Taiwan defend itself, raising the risk of confrontation should Beijing attempt an invasion.
Ryan said Xi Jinping would be watching closely the ongoing war in Ukraine, where Russia’s invasion has bogged down despite overwhelming firepower.
“I think the Russian stalled invasion of Ukraine, particularly in the first couple of weeks, demonstrated that no matter how big you are, your adversary gets a vote — particularly free people who want to keep their freedom, which is what the Taiwanese are,” Ryan said.
He added that Russia’s inability to secure a quick victory may give Xi pause as he considers Taiwan. “If he wasn’t [alarmed], he would be foolish,” Ryan said.
Australian Security Concerns
Ryan also highlighted Chinese naval maneuvers closer to home, including a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy task force recently operating near Australia. He said such activities should be taken more seriously than parades.
“We need to look at the activities such as their circle work around Australia with the PLA Navy Task Force recently,” he said. “These are the things that give us real indications of military capability.”
Australia has deepened its security partnerships through the AUKUS pact with the United States and Britain, committing to acquire nuclear-powered submarines and advanced defense technology. The growing rivalry between Washington and Beijing has placed Canberra in a sensitive position, balancing trade ties with China against security concerns.
Domestic Fallout Over Andrews’ Visit
The attendance of former Victorian Premier Dan Andrews at the parade sparked immediate criticism. Photos showed Andrews seated near authoritarian leaders, prompting questions about his presence.
Ryan said the optics were damaging. “Having your photo taken with the world’s worst and most brutal dictators of the 21st century is not something I want on my mantelpiece,” he said.
He questioned why Andrews had chosen to mark the 80th anniversary of victory in the Pacific in Beijing rather than in Australia.
“If they were going up there to commemorate the anniversary of victory in the Pacific, why not celebrate that at home with Australians who sacrificed so much in that war?” Ryan said.
Former foreign minister Bob Carr, who had also been expected to attend, withdrew at the last minute. Ryan said Carr’s decision to skip the parade but continue other events in Beijing avoided the symbolic association. “At least pulling out of that parade and then avoiding that photo. Perhaps that should have been done,” he said.
A Regional Audience
The parade was aimed not just at China’s domestic audience but also at regional neighbors, analysts said. Southeast Asian nations, many of whom have disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea, were watching closely.
Ryan said China’s ability to design and build its own sophisticated weapons without outside assistance was a significant change. “That’s a new development over the last decade or so, and it gives them a lot of freedom to both fight a war, but do so without any strings attached as we’ve seen from the Ukrainians in the last couple of years,” he said.
The Political Message
Ryan said Xi’s words, backed by the display of firepower, should be read as a political message first and foremost. “It’s showing don’t stand in our way,” he said. “Particularly if they make a move in Taiwan.”
The general said Australia and its allies must be cautious not to underestimate China’s intentions, even if its military has not been tested in combat on the same scale as Russia or the United States.
“We need to look beyond parades for true military capability,” he said. “That means paying attention to their exercises, their regional activities, and the way they integrate their land, sea, air and space forces.”
Why It Matters
China’s military rise is reshaping security dynamics across the Indo-Pacific, a region critical to Australia’s future. For Canberra, the parade underscored both the scale of Beijing’s ambitions and the challenges in responding to them.
Ryan’s comments highlighted the fine line between spectacle and substance. “No matter how big you are, your adversary gets a vote,” he said. That warning, drawn from the lessons of Ukraine, may shape how policymakers in Australia and beyond interpret Beijing’s show of force.
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