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China counseled Papua New Guinea against signing a defense treaty with Australia, dealing a significant blow to Canberra's Pacific strategy as both PNG and Vanuatu security arrangements collapse within days of each other.
Former Home Affairs Secretary Mike Pezzullo revealed that PNG consulted Beijing on the proposed mutual defense pact, with China subsequently advising against the agreement during an interview on Sky News AM Agenda.
"PNG went to China and they sought Beijing's advice on this treaty. And lo and behold, China has advised against signing that treaty," Pezzullo said, describing the development as part of broader geopolitical competition in the region.
The setback follows Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's failed attempt to secure both PNG and Vanuatu defense agreements during his recent Pacific tour, leaving Australia's regional security architecture in question.
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Full Military Pact Reveals Strategic Stakes
Pezzullo emphasized that the PNG agreement represents far more than routine defense cooperation, describing it as a comprehensive military alliance comparable to the ANZUS Treaty between Australia, New Zealand and the United States.
"This is not just simply a status of forces agreement or a defense cooperation agreement, which allows forces to operate in each other's territory, deals with legal immunities and all the rest of it," he said. "This says, if you're attacked or I'm attacked, we'll work together to fight a common enemy."
The former senior official noted that the treaty language requiring parties to "act to meet the common danger" mirrors ANZUS provisions, creating binding mutual defense obligations.
"That is a lift straight out of what you and I have discussed before, the ANZUS Treaty. So it's a full-blown military pact," Pezzullo said.
PNG Elite Concerns About Regional Conflict
The proposed treaty reflects genuine PNG concerns about potential involvement in future regional conflicts, according to Pezzullo, who described Pacific Island leaders as sophisticated strategic thinkers rather than passive observers.
"They're very active. They think about the world. They're very well informed at the elite level, at least," he said. "I think there is a sincere concern in PNG that they could be the subject of an external attack."
Pezzullo suggested PNG leaders recognize their strategic location between Australia and potential conflict zones in the Western Pacific creates vulnerability in any future military confrontation.
"Australia's down here, the Western Pacific is above them, they're in the middle of potentially what could be a shooting gallery, as you and I have often discussed, on the low probability, unlikely, but hugely tragic and catastrophic event of a war," he said.
Diplomatic Exposure Creates Pressure
The public nature of the failed agreements creates significant diplomatic pressure for the Australian government, according to Pezzullo, who warned that failure to deliver would constitute a "diplomatic disaster."
"To have the two Prime Ministers sign the communique saying the text has now been agreed, subject to Cabinet processes, we really have to deliver this now," he said. "We can't be seen to be weakening and falling back from the standard that's... Because the text is out there now."
Pezzullo argued that any variation from the agreed text or failure to complete the treaty process would damage Australia's credibility across the Pacific region.
Trump Signals Afghanistan Base Interest
Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump's recent comments about reclaiming Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan reflect broader U.S. strategic repositioning amid great power competition, Pezzullo suggested.
Trump stated during a London appearance: "We're trying to get it back, by the way. We want that base back. But one of the reasons we want the base is, as you know, it's an hour away from where China makes its nuclear weapons."
Pezzullo interpreted the timing as potential negotiating pressure related to ongoing U.S.-China trade discussions.
"I think in the President's mind that a whole lot of balls he's juggling about landing this deal with China, whether it's TikTok, export controls, tariff levels, and he's a master at this," he said. "This is President Trump just tweaking up the negotiating adversary."
Australia-U.S. Meeting Expectations
Despite speculation about potential friction, Pezzullo expressed confidence that the upcoming meeting between Trump and Albanese would proceed smoothly, dismissing concerns about confrontational exchanges.
"Unless the President personally takes umbrage at something like the sale of the Virginias, our underinvestment in defense, as many would characterize it, our reluctance to engage in joint military planning, unless he personally reads the brief and says, actually, I'm going to give the Prime Minister a piece of my mind," Pezzullo said.
He suggested Australia ranks relatively low among Trump's immediate concerns given competing global priorities.
"I don't see Australia's ranking in the sort of top 100 of his concerns, given everything he's contending with," Pezzullo said.
Strategic Competition Context
The PNG consultation with China exemplifies the challenging environment facing Australian diplomacy in the Pacific, where Beijing maintains significant economic and political influence across island nations.
Pezzullo described the situation as part of an ongoing "great power contest" where strategic adversaries constantly pressure regional partners to align with competing interests.
"You're in a great power contest, a great game, as he called it, and you've got an adversary, a strategic adversary, that's just constantly and relentlessly pushing," he said, referencing recent comments by senior U.S. official Kurt Campbell.
The former Home Affairs Secretary acknowledged that Australia's Pacific diplomacy has been "quite active" across recent governments but faces sustained competition from China's expanding regional presence.
Preparatory Work Continues
Despite the setbacks, Pezzullo praised preparatory work conducted by senior Australian officials including Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles, Ambassador Kevin Rudd, and Foreign Minister Penny Wong ahead of crucial international meetings.
"My bet is that the meeting will go very well. I don't think it will be very long and overly consequential because he won't be able to cover much in 20 minutes," he said regarding the Trump-Albanese encounter.
The diplomatic challenges in PNG and Vanuatu underscore the complexity of Australia's efforts to maintain strategic partnerships amid intensifying regional competition with China's growing influence across Pacific Island nations.
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