Australia Moves Closer to Palestinian Statehood Recognition Amid Israeli Annexation Fears
Australia is accelerating toward recognizing Palestinian statehood as Foreign Minister Penny Wong warns there may be "no Palestine left to recognise" if Israel moves forward with territorial annexation plans, according to a leading international law expert.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's government has shown "growing urgency" on the issue over the past 10 days, aligning with similar moves by France, the United Kingdom and Canada ahead of a critical United Nations General Assembly meeting in September, Professor Donald Rothwell told ABC News Australia Tuesday.
"The Prime Minister has indicated that there's a growing urgency in relation to Australia acting on this matter," said Rothwell, a Professor of International Law at the Australian National University's College of Law. "We've seen a real momentum in terms of the language that the Australian government has been using on this matter."
The Labor government came to office in 2022 with Palestinian state recognition as part of its electoral platform, but several impediments have delayed action until now.
Wong's recent comments reflect mounting concern that ongoing developments in Gaza and the West Bank could eliminate the possibility of a viable Palestinian state. The Israeli Knesset passed a non-binding resolution approximately 10 days ago urging the government to annex Palestine, adding urgency to international recognition efforts.
"There's a growing concern, and Foreign Minister Penny Wong has clearly articulated that, that there will effectively be no Palestine left to recognise if we do see Israel ultimately moving to annex all of the Palestinian territory," Rothwell said.
Gaza Devastation Accelerates Timeline
The push for recognition comes as Gaza faces "total devastation" from the ongoing military campaign between Israel and Hamas, while Israel's settler movement in the West Bank has been "emboldened" over the past 18 months, according to Rothwell.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans to convene his security cabinet later this week to decide on a new military plan for Gaza, where Israeli Defense Forces currently occupy between 70% and 80% of the territory.
"If the IDF was to completely militarily occupy Gaza, that would just be a further step along the road to, ultimately, Israel perhaps annexing the Gaza Strip," Rothwell said.
Complete Israeli occupation of Gaza would represent a significant escalation beyond the current military presence, potentially aimed at securing the release of approximately 50 remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas and ensuring complete demilitarization of the militant group.
"Mr Netanyahu would say that this is designed to secure the release of the remaining 50 Israeli hostages held by Hamas, but also to completely ensure that the demilitarisation of Hamas is complete," Rothwell explained.
Truth matters. Quality journalism costs.
Your subscription to The Evening Post (Australia) directly funds the investigative reporting our democracy needs. For less than a coffee per week, you enable our journalists to uncover stories that powerful interests would rather keep hidden. There is no corporate influence involved. No compromises. Just honest journalism when we need it most.
Not ready to be paid subscribe, but appreciate the newsletter ? Grab us a beer or snag the exclusive ad spot at the top of next week's newsletter.
US Response Uncertain Under Trump
The response from the United States under the Trump administration remains unclear, with Rothwell noting that President Donald Trump has been "very sympathetic" to Netanyahu's military and political objectives.
"We really don't know as to what would be the red line for the Trump administration on these matters, but we can certainly say that Donald Trump has been really very supportive of many of the policies that Benjamin Netanyahu's government's been advocating," Rothwell said.
The Trump administration has previously supported proposals for Gaza redevelopment that included relocating Palestinians to surrounding territories, indicating potential alignment with Israeli territorial ambitions.
A letter from 600 former Israeli security chiefs urging Trump to end the Gaza war is unlikely to significantly influence US policy, according to Rothwell, despite introducing "a different voice" to the conversation.
"Whether they'll listen to these retired military chiefs in terms of changing course, I must admit I'm somewhat doubtful," he said.
Australia Explores Sanctions Options
Australia is "exploring all options" regarding potential sanctions against Israel, representing a shift in official language on the issue, Rothwell said. The country has legal capability to impose sanctions on individual Israelis and Israeli entities actively engaged in the military campaign.
"Australia has a clear capability under Australian law to issue sanctions against Israel, against individual Israelis and individual Israeli entities that are actively engaged in the military campaign," Rothwell explained.
However, Foreign Minister Wong has indicated Australia will not act unilaterally but will coordinate with like-minded countries to maximize political and diplomatic impact.
"Australia is seeing that on its own Australian sanctions will not achieve much but if there's a number of states involved in moving forward with sanctions politically and diplomatically that's quite significant," Rothwell said.
Palestinian Authority Reforms Key to Recognition
Albanese held a phone call overnight with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, reiterating Australia's commitment to a two-state solution and agreeing to meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly next month.
The conversation addressed Australia's key requirement for Palestinian Authority reforms before proceeding with recognition, including free and fair elections in Palestine.
"The Prime Minister has constantly restated that one of the key objectives for Australia to move forward to recognition would be a reform of the Palestinian Authority, free and fair elections being held in Palestine," Rothwell said.
Abbas indicated willingness to hold elections before the end of this year or early 2026, aligning with Australian and Canadian requirements for recognition.
"This goes to the question as to the effectiveness of the governance that could be exercised over Palestine by the Palestinian Authority," Rothwell explained. "They're all very positive in terms of those conversations taking place and Australia seeking assurances that the Palestinian Authority is actually committed to moving forward with those reforms."
International Coordination Intensifies
The timing of Australia's accelerated approach reflects broader international coordination ahead of the September UN General Assembly meeting, where Palestinian statehood will be a central discussion topic.
Recent announcements from France, the United Kingdom and Canada regarding potential recognition have created momentum for coordinated international action on the issue.
The two-state solution faces what Rothwell described as a critical juncture, with fears that continued Israeli territorial expansion could permanently compromise prospects for Palestinian independence.
"That would completely dissolve the notion of two states," Rothwell said regarding potential Israeli annexation of Palestinian territories.
The developments come as the international community grapples with the long-term implications of the Gaza conflict and its impact on Middle East peace prospects. Australia's position reflects growing international concern that window for a viable two-state solution may be closing rapidly.
Netanyahu's upcoming security cabinet meeting on Gaza strategy could prove pivotal in determining whether current military operations evolve into permanent territorial occupation, potentially triggering immediate international recognition responses.
The Australian government's shift toward more urgent language on Palestinian recognition signals a significant diplomatic realignment as traditional two-state solution supporters race against what they view as existential threats to Palestinian territorial integrity.
Wong's characterization of the situation as potentially leaving "no Palestine left to recognise" underscores the government's assessment that time for diplomatic solutions may be running short absent immediate international action.
The coordination between Australia, Canada, France and the United Kingdom suggests a broader Western diplomatic strategy to preserve two-state solution viability through preemptive recognition measures, regardless of ongoing conflict developments.
These efforts face the complex challenge of balancing support for Palestinian statehood aspirations against maintaining relationships with Israel and navigating uncertain American policy positions under the Trump administration.
Australia has chosen Japan's Mogami-class frigate over Germany's competing design in a $10 billion procurement deal aimed at rapidly expanding the nation's aging naval fleet, Defence Minister Richard Miles announced Tuesday.
The decision marks the first time Japan will export warships to another country and represents a major shift in Australia's naval strategy as the government scrambles to address what Miles called "the oldest combatant service fleet that the Navy had been operating since the Second World War."
"The Mogami-class vessel was selected because it's the best vessel for Australia, and that's really important to understand," Miles told ABC News Australia. "When you assessed the platforms that we were looking at, the two ships, their cost, the way in which we would sustain them over the long term, the Mogami vessel is the best vessel for Australia."
The announcement comes as Australia faces a critical capability gap, with no prospect of new combatant vessels entering service until 2034 under the troubled Hunter-class frigate program. The new general purpose frigates will help fill that gap and support Australia's plan to double its surface combatant fleet to 20 vessels.
Japanese Production Line Offers Speed Advantage
Under the arrangement, Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries will build the first three vessels in Japan before production shifts to Australia's Henderson Defence Precinct in Western Australia. The approach prioritizes speed over domestic manufacturing for the initial batch.
"The focus here is speed to service, because we need to have a new service combatant in the water as quickly as we can," Miles said. "That's why we're having the first batch, the first three, being built overseas."
The Mogami-class frigate operates with a crew of 90 people compared to 170 for the current Anzac-class frigates it will replace. Despite requiring fewer crew members, the new vessels are significantly larger, with a displacement of 6,200 tonnes compared to the Anzac's 3,500 tonnes.
"We're talking about a much bigger ship being operated with a much smaller crew, and there's no doubt that that will have a very significant long-term impact, both in terms of the challenge for us in crewing the ship, but also the ultimate long-term cost," Miles explained.
Decision Based on Capability, Not Politics
Miles firmly rejected suggestions that strategic relationships or pressure from the United States influenced the selection process, despite reports that Washington favored the Japanese bid over Germany's Meko-class offering.
"The US did not provide a view. This was an Australian decision about which was the best frigate to pursue," Miles said when pressed about American involvement in the decision.
The minister emphasized that regional considerations and China's growing military presence did not factor into the specific choice between the Japanese and German vessels.
"It was not in terms of the choice. We've been very clear that the capability needs to be the fundamental basis upon which we are making these decisions," Miles said.
However, he acknowledged that the broader decision to expand Australia's surface fleet reflects the changing strategic landscape in the Indo-Pacific region.
Naval Expert Supports Decision Despite Risks
Jennifer Parker, an adjunct fellow in Naval Studies at the Australian National University who served 20 years in the Navy, endorsed the government's choice while highlighting significant implementation challenges ahead.
"I think it's a good decision. Both the Japanese and the German had pros and cons," Parker told ABC News. "The upgraded Mogami is the best ship on paper."
Parker noted that Japan has never exported such complex defense capabilities before, creating potential complications for the program.
"One of the cons is that Japan has never exported such a complex defence capability. They'd never exported warships before. So that's going to take a little bit of working through," she said.
The naval expert emphasized that Australia's track record in shipbuilding procurement has been problematic, referencing delays with current programs.
"We've not always been the best shipbuilding customer, which means we also need to be a little bit better at that to make this work," Parker said.
Procurement Challenges and Timeline Concerns
The selection represents Australia's attempt to avoid the cost blowouts and delays that have plagued the Hunter-class frigate program, which has ballooned to more than $45 billion according to critics.
Greens defence spokesperson David Shoebridge criticized the government's handling of naval procurement, saying both Labor and Coalition governments "have so ruined the Hunter Frigate procurement deal, which was meant to be putting ships in the water by the end of this decade."
Miles defended the government's procurement approach, expressing confidence that the program will remain within the allocated $10 billion budget over the next decade as part of the $55 billion surface fleet investment.
"We are confident that this will be within the budget we have over the next 10 years," Miles said. "We've put aside $55 billion for the surface fleet over the next 10 years within the Integrated Investment Program."
Parker warned that significant risks remain in the contract negotiation phase, noting that the vessels Australia will receive differ substantially from Japan's current Mogami frigates.
"The ship we're getting is actually about nine metres longer, it's nearly a metre wider, it has more missiles, it has different radars, so it's a different capability," Parker explained.
Integration and Sustainment Challenges
The complexity of introducing a new vessel type into Australia's fleet presents logistical challenges that could impact the program's success, according to Parker.
"The biggest challenge is getting it into the fleet, making it work with your other capabilities," she said. "We're going to be doing this whilst introducing two frigates into the fleet, the Hunter Class and the Mogami."
Sustainment issues including spare parts availability, training pipelines and maintenance requirements will need careful management, Parker noted.
"Because it isn't as common with the rest of our fleet, you're going to be looking at, well, how do you get the spare parts for it? How do you sustain it? You're going to have different training pipelines," she said.
The expert emphasized the importance of avoiding the customization pitfalls that have affected previous Australian naval programs.
"Making sure that we can work that into the contract, but there's not too many changes, because that's where we've had issues with the Arafura offshore patrol vessel and the Hunter class," Parker said.
Defence Recruitment Shows Improvement
In a separate development, Miles reported significant progress in defence recruitment, with enlistments reaching their highest level in 15 years despite ongoing challenges.
The Defence Force received 75,000 applications in the past year, representing the highest number in five years, while enlistments increased by 7,000 people over 12 months.
"That's the highest enlistment that we've done in 15 years, and that's really a very significant step forward. It's a 17% increase on the enlistments that we did the year prior to that," Miles said.
However, the time between application and enlistment remains problematic, currently averaging 266 days compared to 300 days when the government took office. The target is to reduce this to around 125 days.
"About 10% of the recruits that we are bringing into the Defence Force, we're doing in under 150 days. So our best practice is actually not bad. But it's really about making that our everyday practice," Miles explained.
The improvement comes after the Defence Force shrank by approximately 1,400 people in the two years before the current government took office.
Palestinian Statehood Recognition Approaches
Miles also addressed growing momentum toward Australian recognition of Palestinian statehood, echoing Foreign Minister Penny Wong's recent comments about urgency on the issue.
"There's definitely a sense of urgency in the way in which the Foreign Minister described it," Miles said, citing the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza and broader Middle East developments.
The minister emphasized that any pathway to statehood must exclude Hamas involvement in Palestinian governance and secure the return of Israeli hostages.
"The non-involvement of Hamas in any future Palestinian government is critically important. Return of hostages is clearly important," Miles said.
He reiterated Australia's long-standing bipartisan support for a two-state solution while acknowledging that recent events have created new urgency around recognition timing.
Strategic Fleet Expansion Timeline
The frigate selection represents a cornerstone of Australia's plan to significantly expand its naval capabilities in response to regional security challenges. The government has committed to doubling its surface combatant fleet from the current 10 vessels to 20 by the 2030s.
Parker highlighted the timeline challenges facing the expansion, noting that Australia currently operates 10 surface combatants and will have nine next year as older vessels are retired.
"We're saying we're in our most strategic circumstances and the fleet won't start to grow until the 2030s. That is still a big issue that we're going to have to manage," she said.
The naval expert emphasized that while the frigate decision represents progress, broader fleet challenges remain unaddressed, including issues with amphibious warfare vessels, replenishment ships and mine warfare capabilities.
Industrial Implications
The decision to build subsequent vessels in Australia after the initial three Japanese-built ships supports the government's continuous naval shipbuilding strategy. The Henderson Defence Precinct in Western Australia will serve as the production hub for the remaining eight vessels.
"What this will be is the heart of the continuous naval shipbuilding program that we have in Western Australia," Miles said, contingent on the precinct being ready for production transfer.
The arrangement provides Australia with immediate access to Japan's existing Mogami production line while building domestic capability for long-term sustainment and potential future vessel construction.
Industry Minister Pat Conroy indicated that changes to the Japanese design would be minimized to avoid the complications that have affected previous Australian naval programs.
The frigate program represents a significant test of Australia's ability to execute major defence procurement successfully after years of cost overruns and delays across multiple projects. Success could establish a template for future international defence partnerships as Australia seeks to rapidly modernize its military capabilities.
The first three vessels are expected to enter Australian service by 2034, with the full 11-ship program extending into the following decade as part of Australia's broader strategic response to changing regional security dynamics.
Got a News Tip?
Contact our editor via Proton Mail encrypted, X Direct Message, LinkedIn, or email. You can securely message him on Signal by using his username, Miko Santos.
As well as knowing you’re keeping Mencari (Australia) alive, you’ll also get:
Get breaking news AS IT HAPPENS - Gain instant access to our real-time coverage and analysis when major stories break, keeping you ahead of the curve
Unlock our COMPLETE content library - Enjoy unlimited access to every newsletter, podcast episode, and exclusive archive—all seamlessly available in your favorite podcast apps.
Join the conversation that matters - Be part of our vibrant community with full commenting privileges on all content, directly supporting The Evening Post (Australia)
Not ready to be paid subscribe, but appreciate the newsletter ? Grab us a beer or snag the exclusive ad spot at the top of next week's newsletter.
