AUKUS Review Faces Uncertain Outcome as Trump's Indo-Pacific Strategy Remains Unsettled

Photo by Joshi Milestoner on Unsplash

A critical 30-day review of the AUKUS defense partnership concludes next week with outcomes uncertain as the Trump administration has yet to settle its broader Indo-Pacific strategy, according to former Foreign Affairs Secretary Mike Pezzullo.

Speaking on AM Agenda Tuesday, Pezzullo said the review's results depend heavily on whether President Donald Trump decides to confront China or "cede them space in the Indo-Pacific," a fundamental question that remains unresolved two months into his presidency.

"Until that question gets resolved, Laura, I think we're in a holding pattern in the Indo-Pacific," Pezzullo told host Laura Jayes. "I don't think American policy in relation to the Indo-Pacific is as settled as what a lot of the commentators think."

The AUKUS partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States includes plans for Australia to acquire Virginia-class submarines beginning in 2032, but the review could potentially demand increased Australian defense spending or pause the submarine transfers.

Pentagon Concerns Over Submarine Availability

Pezzullo outlined competing perspectives within the U.S. administration regarding Australia's submarine acquisition, highlighting Pentagon concerns about fleet availability.

"If we sell one to the Australians in 2032, which is seven years away, then that's one fewer that we have," he said, describing the Pentagon's position. "From the Pentagon's point of view, the concern is... the availability of those Virginia-class submarines."

However, Pezzullo noted potential solutions exist to address Pentagon concerns, including helping maintain more boats to increase operational availability.

The former secretary said the Pentagon wants Australia to "lift its game in terms of its own military capability" and provide greater access to U.S. force posture initiatives, including the ability to launch military strikes from Australia and fire missiles from Australian territory.

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